Background
Traditional single-marker and multimarker molecular profiling approaches in bladder cancer do not account for major risk factors and their influence on clinical outcome. This study examined the prognostic value of molecular alterations across all disease stages after accounting for clinicopathological factors and smoking, the most common risk factor for bladder cancer in the developed world, in a population-based cohort.
Methods
Primary bladder tumors from 212 cancer registry patients (median follow-up, 13.2 years) were immunohistochemically profiled for Bax, caspase-3, Apaf-1, Bcl-2, p53, p21, cyclooxygenase-2, vascular endothelial growth factor, and E-cadherin alterations. “Smoking intensity” quantified the impact of duration and daily frequency of smoking.
Results
Age, pathological stage, surgical modality, and adjuvant therapy administration were significantly associated with survival. Increasing smoking intensity was independently associated with worse outcome (P<0.001). Apaf-1, E-cadherin and p53 were prognostic for outcome (P=0.005, 0.014 and 0.032, respectively); E-cadherin remained prognostic following multivariable analysis (P=0.040). Combined alterations in all nine biomarkers were prognostic by univariable (P<0.001) and multivariable (P=0.006) analysis. A multivariable model that included all nine biomarkers and smoking intensity had greater accuracy in predicting prognosis than models comprising of standard clinicopathological covariates without or with smoking intensity (P<0.001 and P=0.018, respectively).
Conclusions
Apaf-1, E-cadherin and p53 alterations individually predicted survival in bladder cancer patients. Increasing number of biomarker alterations was significantly associated with worsening survival, although markers comprising the panel were not necessarily prognostic individually. Predictive value of the nine-biomarker panel with smoking intensity was significantly higher than that of routine clinicopathological parameters alone.