Urban warming and future air-conditioning use in an Asian megacity: importance of positive feedback

Takane, Yuya; Kikegawa, Yukihiro; Hara, Masayuki; Grimmond, Sue

doi:10.1038/s41612-019-0096-2

Cited by 48 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 75 publications

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“…This can be achieved using high resolution weather models (~1 km) forced by multiple simulations of climate scenarios (e.g. carbon dioxide doubling) to provide climate and air quality at urban spatial and temporal scales (Amorim et al, 2018;Takane et al, 2019). These models can account for the urban fabric (Ching et al, 2018), physical (e.g., anthropogenic car emissions) and human behaviour processes (e.g.…”

Section: Other Key Messagesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These models can account for the urban fabric (Ching et al, 2018), physical (e.g., anthropogenic car emissions) and human behaviour processes (e.g. excess heat from use of air conditioners in heat waves; Lemonsu et al, 2012;Masson et al, 2013Schoetter et al, 2017Takane et al, 2019). As urban designers need both access to and understanding of the data/products, cross-sector (e.g., Earth system scientists to/from urban planners), training is necessary.…”

Section: Other Key Messagesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Integrated urban hydrometeorological, climate and environmental services: Concept, methodology and key messages

et al. 2020

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Integrated Urban hydrometeorological, climate and environmental Services (IUS) is a WMO initiative to aid development of science-based services to support safe, healthy, resilient and climate friendly cities. Guidance for Integrated Urban Hydrometeorological, Climate and Environmental Services (Volume I) has been developed with the intent to provide an overview of the concept, methods and good practices for producing and providing these services to respond to the hazards across a range of time scales (weather to climate). This involves combining (dense) heterogeneous observation networks, high-resolution forecasts, multi-hazard early warning systems and climate services to assist cities in setting and implementing mitigation and adaptation strategies for the management and building of resilient and sustainable cities. IUS include research, evaluation and delivery with a wide participation from city governments, national hydrometeorological services, international organizations, universities, research institutions and private sector stakeholders. An overview of the IUS concept with key messages, examples of good practice and recommendations are provided. The research community will play an important role to: identify critical research challenges; provide impact forecasts and warnings; develop and deliver IUS internationally, and; support national and local communities in the implementation of IUS thereby contributing to the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals at all scales. 2015-2030 (UNDRR, 2015) aims to substantially reduce impacts of disaster in terms of mortality, economic loss and damages, and disruption of basic services, while contributing to the mitigation of technological and security risks, through the provision of impact-based services (WMO, 2016). These services consider hazards, vulnerability and exposure. Governments, businesses and the public need to understand how the hydrometeorological hazard may affect their lives, livelihoods, property and economic activity in order to take appropriate actions. As weather, air quality, climate and the water cycle know no national boundaries, international cooperation at a global scale is essential to develop commensurate services and to reap the benefits from their application. The WMO, a United Nations Specialized Agency, provides the framework for such international cooperation. This intergovernmental organization's 193 member states and territories (called Members) are mainly concerned with issues at a national, regional and international J o u r n a l P r e -p r o o f Journal Pre-proof the Guidance (Vol. 1) for the broader scientific community and stakeholders. Following a background discussion (section 2), the IUS concepts are outlined (section 3). Results from surveys of urban experts and WMO members (section 4) are used to articulate the science and knowledge gaps (section 5) and to illustrate the lessons learnt and recommendations (section 6). This is followed by concluding remarks (section 7).J o u r n a l P r e -p r o o f Journal Pre-proof ...

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Section: Other Key Messagesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Other Key Messagesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrated urban hydrometeorological, climate and environmental services: Concept, methodology and key messages

et al. 2020

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“…Although future urban air temperatures have been explored both globally and locally (e.g. Adachi et al 2012, Kusaka et al 2012, Kusaka et al 2016, Hamdi et al 2014, Grossman-Clarke et al 2016, Conlon et al 2016, Krayenhoff et al 2018, Tewari et al 2019, Darmanto et al 2019, Takane et al 2019, Lipson et al 2019, few studies have examined the impact on human heat stress in cities. As global climate model (GCM) simulations (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…With warmer temperatures, Q F, AC can increase causing a positive feedback leading to additional urban warming and energy consumption (e.g. Ashie et al 1999, Kikegawa et al 2003, Sailor 2011, Li et al 2014, Kikegawa et al 2014, Salamanca et al 2014, Takane et al 2017, Ginzhurg and Demchenko 2019, Takane et al 2019. In Osaka, this positive feedback is predicted to cause 0.6°C additional warming in early morning August temperatures (based on a four-GCM ensemble for +3.0°C (cf to current) global warming scenario, ∼2070 s).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In Osaka, this positive feedback is predicted to cause 0.6°C additional warming in early morning August temperatures (based on a four-GCM ensemble for +3.0°C (cf to current) global warming scenario, ∼2070 s). Given this is a similar size to differences or uncertainties within GHG emission scenarios, RCMs, and urban planning scenarios, this feedback need to be considered (Takane et al 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Asian megacity heat stress under future climate scenarios: impact of air-conditioning feedback

Takane

Ohashi

Grimmond

et al. 2020

Environ. Res. Commun.

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Future heat stress under six future global warming (ΔT GW ) scenarios (IPCC RCP8.5) in an Asian megacity (Osaka) is estimated using a regional climate model with an urban canopy and air-conditioning (AC). An urban heat 'stress' island is projected in all six scenarios (ΔT GW =+0.5 to +3.0°C in 0.5°C steps). Under ΔT GW =+3.0°C conditions, people outdoors experience 'extreme' heat stress, which could result in dangerously high increases in human body core temperature. AC-induced feedback increases heat stress roughly linearly as ΔT GW increases, reaching 0.6°C (or 12% of the heat stress increase). As this increase is similar to current possible heat island mitigation techniques, this feedback needs to be considered in urban climate projections, especially where AC use is large. Abbreviations and notation used AC Air-conditioning AC→FB Simulation with AC feedback (FB) AC≠FB Simulation without AC FB (no-Q F, AC ) BEP+BEM Building effect parameterisation and building energy model C Commercial and office C g Sensible heat flux from the globe surface (W m −2 ) c p Specific heat at constant pressure (J K −1 kg −1 ) CM-BEM Urban canopy model and building energy model CMIP Climate model intercomparison project COP Coefficient of performance COST Cooperation in science and technical development D Diameter of the globe (m) FB Feedback GCM Global climate model GHG Greenhouse gas GIAJ Geospatial Information Authority of Japan GIS Geospatial information system IPCC Intergovernmental

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Highly Heterogeneous Heat‐Related Health Impacts in China and Implications for Sustainable Urban Heat Governance

Li,

Tang,

2023

Advanced Sustainable Systems

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Understanding heat‐related impacts is crucial to improving public awareness of addressing urban heat challenges and enabling decision makers to mainstream heat action plans. This study explores heat‐related physiological and psychological impacts, symptoms, and demographic determinants based on 4210 questionnaires across nine large Chinese cities, including Chengdu, Chongqing, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Nanchang, Nanjing, Shanghai, Shenyang, and Xi'an in August 2020. The results indicate that heat‐related psychological impacts are equally severe as physiological impacts. Chongqing is under the most severe heat‐related health impact on both the physiological and psychological aspects. Skin heat damage (SKI), digestive system illnesses (DIG), respiratory illnesses (RES), and cardiovascular illnesses (CAR) are prominent physiological illnesses in all cities, while emotional irritability (EMO), easy to lose control temper (EAS), low mood (LOW), and insomnia (INS) are prominent psychological symptoms. Chongqing and Guangzhou are the most vulnerable cities in terms of physiological and psychological symptoms. Chengdu, Hangzhou, Nanjing, and Shanghai are more resilient in terms of physiological symptoms, whereas Chengdu, Hangzhou, and Shanghai are more resistant to psychological symptoms. Heat‐related health impacts, symptoms, and demographic determinants are spatially heterogeneous. The elderly and patients are more vulnerable, while such a conclusion is not always true. The spatial heterogeneity of heat‐related physiological and psychological impacts, symptoms, and drivers highlights the significance of developing city‐specific heat health action plans.

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Urban warming and future air-conditioning use in an Asian megacity: importance of positive feedback

Cited by 48 publications

References 75 publications

Integrated urban hydrometeorological, climate and environmental services: Concept, methodology and key messages

Integrated urban hydrometeorological, climate and environmental services: Concept, methodology and key messages

Asian megacity heat stress under future climate scenarios: impact of air-conditioning feedback

Highly Heterogeneous Heat‐Related Health Impacts in China and Implications for Sustainable Urban Heat Governance

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