Urban landscape pattern mainly drives the early epidemic distribution of dengue fever in Hangzhou, China

Abstract

Context A new dengue fever (DF) epidemic in Hangzhou, China has placed a serious burden on the urban sustainable development. However, the key drivers of DF epidemic are still unclear, especially the effects of urban landscape patterns. Objectives In the present study, the spatial relationships between DF epidemic and urban landscape attributes in Hangzhou were investigated based on the framework and approach of landscape epidemiology. Methods The landscape indices of green space, waterbody, and built-up area were calculated based on land cover and land use (LULC) data. Population density, road density, GDP, and property price were used to represent socioeconomic conditions. The densities of social gathering places (SGPs) such as restaurants, malls, services, entertainment, traditional markets, and parks were recorded. A geographically weighted zero-inflated poisson regression (GWZIPR) model was applied to analyze the effects of LULC patterns, socioeconomic conditions, and SGPs on the risk of DF epidemics. An additional ZIPR-LASSO algorithm was used to explore the dominant drivers of spatial patterns of DF risk to construct the optimal model. Results DF cases were mainly clustered in central Hangzhou. Landscape patterns involving LULC and SGPs played a more important role in DF epidemic than the socioeconomic conditions. Among these factors, the total area of built-up area had the greatest effect to DF risk. Furthermore, property price, density of entertainment and services could better explain the spatial variation of DF risk in Hangzhou. Conclusions Overall, the contribution of landscape patterns to the DF epidemic was more important than socioeconomic conditions within the urban region, especially in the new epidemic region. These findings revealed the key role of landscape epidemiology in public health management and landscape governance to improve the urban sustainable development and human well-being.