Urban Land-Use Dynamics in the Niger Delta: The Case of Greater Port Harcourt Watershed

Abstract

Cities in developing countries are urbanising at a rapid rate, resulting in substantial pressures on environmental systems. Among the main factors that lead to flooding, controlling land-use change offers the greatest scope for the management of risk. However, traditional analysis of a “from–to” change matrix is not adequate to provide information of all the land-use changes that occur in a watershed. In this study, an in-depth analysis of land-use change enabled us to quantify the bulk of the changes accumulating from swap changes in a tropical watershed. This study assessed the historical and future land-use/land-cover (LULC) dynamics in the River State region of the Niger Delta. Land-use classification and change detection analysis was conducted using multi-source (Landsat TM, ETM, polygon map, and hard copy) data of the study area for 1986, 1995, and 2003, and projected conditions in 2060. The key findings indicate that historical urbanisation was rapid; urban expansion could increase by 80% in 2060 due to planned urban development; and 95% of the conversions to urban land occurred chiefly at the expense of agricultural land. Urban land was dominated by net changes rather than swap changes, which in the future could amplify flood risk and have other severe implications for the watershed.

The impact of flooding on Nigeria’s sustainable development goals (SDGs)

“…Nigeria is witnessing high urbanization rates without commensurate provision of urban infrastructure and amenities (Aderogba 2012). Agricultural lands are also being increasingly converted to residential areas to accommodate housing needs and development is carried out without proper controls and infrastructure in place, thus worsening the flooding problem (Dan-Jumbo, Metzger, and Clark 2018). Urban planning in Nigeria is poor and this is compounded by numerous compliance problems; this poor planning is a primary cause of the flooding being experienced in Nigeria.…”

Relationship between urban planning and flooding in Port Harcourt city, Nigeria; insights from planning professionals

“…The agricultural lands surrounding Port Harcourt are being increasingly converted to residential areas to accommodate housing needs. This urban development is being carried out without proper controls in place, worsening the flooding problem (Dan‐Jumbo, Metzger, & Clark, 2018). Urban planning in Nigeria is compounded by a failure to ensure new developments comply with urban planning regulations.…”

Spatial dynamics model of land use and land cover changes: A comparison of CA, ANN, and ANN-CA

“…The LULC dynamics on spatially-temporally terms can be reviewed by involving many influential factors [16]. LULC changes observation in peri-urban can use satellite imageries data as input for a dynamic system.…”