Urban Growth Patterns and Forest Carbon Dynamics in the Metropolitan Twin Cities of Islamabad and Rawalpindi, Pakistan

Abstract

The unchecked and unplanned expansion of urban areas has led to the conversion of millions of green areas to gray areas. The recent urban growth patterns of Pakistan’s metropolitan twin cities, Islamabad and Rawalpindi, is a matter of concern for the surrounding green areas. The present study aimed to categorize and quantify the land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) patterns and the corresponding impacts on the forest carbon dynamics around Islamabad and Rawalpindi. Multispectral satellite images for the year 1990 (Landsat 5 TM) and 2020 (Landsat 8 OLI) were used to determine, quantify, and compare the LULCC inside and around the twin metropolitan cities. Field inventory surveys in the reserved forests of Rawalpindi and Islamabad were also conducted to determine the amount of stored carbon in these forests. Our results showed an accelerated annual urban expansion (i.e., an increase in the built-up area) of 16.49% and 26.72% in Rawalpindi and Islamabad, respectively, during the study period. Similarly, the amount of barren land and agricultural land was reduced at an annual rate of 2.08% and 2.18%, respectively, in Rawalpindi and 0.25% and 1.04% in Islamabad. A reduction in the area of barren mountains also occurred at an annual of 2.26% in Islamabad, while it increased by 4.16% in Rawalpindi. The amount of carbon stored in the reserved forests of Islamabad stood at 139.17 ± 12.15 Mg C/ha while that of Rawalpindi was 110.4 ± 13.79 Mg C/ha. In addition, total stored forest carbon was found to have decreased from 544.70 Gg C to 218.05 Gg C in Rawalpindi, while in Islamabad it increased from 2779.64 Gg C to 3548.16 Gg C. Investment in ecological urban planning, sustainable cities, and appropriate land-use planning is recommended to curb the degradation and conversion of the surrounding green areas of Rawalpindi and Islamabad.

The Impact of Climate Change on Vulnerable Populations

“…The metropolitan city of Rawalpindi has undergone substantial urbanization over the past three decades, as residents of rural areas moved there in search of jobs, education, and other necessities. The exponential growth of urbanization has disrupted the local climate (Mannan et al 2021).…”

“…The metropolitan city of Rawalpindi has undergone substantial urbanization over the past three decades, as residents of rural areas moved there in search of jobs, education, and other necessities. The exponential growth of urbanization has disrupted the local climate (Mannan et al 2021). Using the purposive sampling technique, in-depth interviews were conducted with 60 respondents of Rawalpindi: healthcare professionals (10), janitors (10), transporters (10), restaurateurs (10), and the local population (20), which were later transcribed into English.…”

The role of random forest and Markov chain models in understanding metropolitan urban growth trajectory

“…Significant impacts were noted on vegetation and bare land distribution. Forests recorded the highest gains (2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015)(2016)(2017)(2018)(2019)(2020)(2021), while the largest vegetation losses occurred between 1991 and 2001 and 2011 and 2021, with forests also experiencing losses (2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011). Built-up areas expanded, between 2001 and 2011, whereas barren land observed gains and losses in the same periods, respectively.…”