Urban flooding risk assessment from an categorical regression-analytic hierarchy process

Abstract

The rapid development of urbanization and the impact of human activities have increased the impermeability of urban underlying surfaces, and the drainage capacity of urban drainage systems cannot meet the needs of cities, leading to frequent urban waterlogging. Taking the main urban area of Fuxin City in Liaoning Province as an example, this paper establishes a coupled hydrodynamic model based on Infoworks ICM model to simulate urban waterlogging. Six index factors are chosen for categorical regression(CATREG) and the analytic hierarchy process(AHP) to establish a model for waterlogging risk assessment by analyzing the three components of the urban waterlogging disaster system, the hazard-causing factors, the hazard-forming environment, and the disaster-affected body. The scenario simulation results and the index system technique are used to develop an urban waterlogging risk assessment model, and GIS spatial analysis technology is used to create an intuitive risk assessment map. The findings reveal that: (1) the optimal coupling of several risk assessment models for urban flooding risk assessment improves the assessment results' comprehensiveness and integration, and can provide a stable foundation for urban flooding management. (2) The dense distribution of pipelines in the study area's city center and the distribution of water outlets in the city's southern part have resulted in the distribution of flood-prone spots in the city's southern part, and reconstruction of underground pipeline networks and the construction of drainage pumping stations should be completed around it to reduce the risk level of this area.