Urban expansion in the Atlantic Forest: applying the Nature Futures Framework to develop a conceptual model and future scenarios

Abstract

The Atlantic Forest is an important hotspot of biodiversity and ecosystem services that contributes to the well-being of its 125 million human inhabitants, about three quarters of the Brazilian population. In the coming decades, forecasts show that urban areas in the Atlantic Forest will grow at the expense of natural ecosystems, leading to increasing pressure on biodiversity and ecosystem services. We used the Nature Futures Framework (NFF) for envisioning positive scenarios for cities in the Atlantic Forest. First, we developed a conceptual model based on the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) approach to describe consequences of urban growth for the three NFF perspectives: Nature for Society, Nature for Nature and Nature as Culture. Second, we proposed scenario storylines that encompass multiple social-ecological values of nature and could be used by policy makers to plan desirable futures for the Atlantic Forest. Then, we discussed the impact of distinct policies on these values, identifying the different ways in which the management of urban green and blue spaces, natural ecosystems, and urban densities can lead to different social-ecological outcomes. We further detail the complexity, trade-offs, and synergies regarding city development, nature conservation, and human well-being in this tropical hotspot. Applying NFF can contribute to the ongoing debate regarding urban sustainability, by providing an interdisciplinary and integrative approach that explicitly incorporates multiple values of nature and the visualization of positive futures.

New record of Ocelot, Leopardus pardalis (Linnaeus, 1758) (Felidae), in an Atlantic Forest fragment in the Pernambuco Endemism Center, northeastern Brazil

“…Some species of large carnivores such as Jaguar [Panthera onca (Linnaeus, 1758)] and Cougar [Puma concolor (Linnaeus, 1771)], and large herbivores such as Tapir [Tapirus terrestris (Linnaeus, 1758)] and Gray Brocket Deer [Mazama gouazoubira (Fischer, 1814)] are extirpated from PEC (Garbino et al 2018;Oliveira 2012). This pattern of local extinctions of medium-sized and large mammals, especially top predators, is strongly linked to anthropogenic pressures (e.g., Tabarelli et al 2006;Lembi et al 2020;Bogoni et al 2020). Ocelots are ecologically versatile and can benefit from the absence of these top predators by occupying the ecological niches left by them (Crooks and Soulé 1999;Di Bitetti et al 2006.…”

“…The Atlantic Forest had an original extent of approximately 150 million hectares distributed across eastern Brazil, southern Paraguay, and northern Argentina (Ribeiro et al 2009). The pronounced and unorganized economic exploitation in Brazil (e.g., coffee and sugar cane monocultures and cattle) during the last 500 years were responsible for the disappearance of about 72% of its original vegetation (Weinstein and Dean 1996;Lembi et al 2020). Located to the north of the São Francisco River, the portion of Atlantic Forest known as the Pernambuco Endemism Center (PEC) (Tabarelli et al 2006;Mendes-Pontes et al 2016) is highly biodiverse and it is inserted in a now highly fragmented landscape (Melo et al 2013).…”

Increasing capacity to produce scenarios and models for biodiversity and ecosystem services

“…These were commonly included in the case studies, such as for example in Siqueira-Gay et al (2020), where the socio-ecological system of forest cover change in the Amazon was investigated; or in Barbosa et al (2020) when evaluating pollination service changes in Brazil; or even in Estigarribia et al ( 2020) when analysing changes in biodiversity in the grasslands of South America. Additionally, indirect drivers commonly identified independently of the geographic location of the case study were population pressure, economic growth and international demand, governance, and policy changes, such as for example in the case of Dib et al (2020) for the Cantareira system in Brazil; or in Sarkar et al (2020) for the wetlands of Brazil and India; or in Lembi et al (2020) when analysing urban expansion in the Atlantic Forest; and in Bondé et al (2020) for the shea trees in West Africa.…”

“…Some of the more commonly proposed indicators were (1) the extent of land use change (e.g. urban expansion in Lembi et al [2020], forest cover change in Siqueira-Gay et al [2020], or wetland extension in Sarkar et al [2020]);…”

Cropland Changes Enhance Carbon Sequestration in Northwest China From 1995 to 2015

“…Land use and cover change (LUCC), as the direct driver of human activities disturbing natural ecosystems [21,22], is one of the critical sources of greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere, with direct or potential impacts on global climate [2]. It is estimated that LUCC accounts for approximately one-third (1.24 × 10 5 Tg C) of all anthropogenic carbon emissions between 1850 to 1990 and 12.5% of total emissions between 1990 to 2010 [14,15].…”