Urban climate in Central European cities and global climate change

Bokwa, Anita; Dobrovolný, Petr; Gál, Tamás; Geletič, Jan; Gulyás, Ágnes; Hajto, Monika J.; Holec, Juraj; Hollosi, Brigitta; Kielar, Rafal; Lehnert, Michal; Skarbit, Nóra; Šťastný, Pavel; Švec, Marek; Unger, János; Walawender, Jakub P.; Žuvela‐Aloise, Maja

doi:10.14232/acta.clim.2018.52.1

Cited by 25 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…Recent urban climate research focuses on analysis of current and projected heat load conditions of various Central European cities (e.g. Früh et al 2011;De Ridder et al 2015;Bokwa et al 2018), as well as the heat load reduction potential of possible adaptation measures to help combat negative effects of air temperature increase in urban areas (e.g. Hamdi and Schayes 2008;Santamouris et al 2012;Theeuwes et al 2013;Fallmann et al 2014;Zuvela-Aloise et al 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Applying urban climate model in prediction mode—evaluation of MUKLIMO_3 model performance for Austrian cities based on the summer period of 2019

Hollosi

Žuvela‐Aloise

Oswald

et al. 2021

Theor Appl Climatol

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Extreme heat events are natural hazards affecting many regions of the world. This study uses an example of the six largest cities in Austria to demonstrate the potential of urban climate model simulations applied in prediction mode providing detailed information on thermal conditions. For this purpose, the urban climate model MUKLIMO_3 of the German Meteorological Service (DWD) coupled with the hydrostatic numerical weather prediction model, ALARO, is used to simulate the development of the urban heat island (UHI) in Austrian cities for the summer period of 2019 with a horizontal resolution of 100 m. In addition to the evaluation of UHI predicting skills, other relevant variables, such as humidity and wind characteristics on hourly basis, are also analysed in this paper. Model evaluation confirmed that the MUKLIMO_3 microscale model had the capacity to simulate the main thermal spatiotemporal patterns in urban areas; however, a strong dependence on the input data from the mesoscale model was found. Our results showed large benefit in prediction of maximum air temperatures in urban areas, while the relative humidity predictions of MUKLIMO_3 appear to be much less plausible and show large variety of model prediction skills. Urban climate model simulations using real atmospheric conditions can facilitate better quantification and understanding of day-to-day intra-urban variations in microclimate as well as provide a basis for evaluation of the microclimate prediction skills of mesoscale numerical models with urban extensions.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Applying urban climate model in prediction mode—evaluation of MUKLIMO_3 model performance for Austrian cities based on the summer period of 2019

Hollosi

Žuvela‐Aloise

Oswald

et al. 2021

Theor Appl Climatol

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“…In rural areas, large differences are also seen between valleys and nearby hilltops. The heat load in the valleys is significantly higher than in the elevated areas (Bokwa et al 2018). The climate change scenarios for the near future (2021-2050) show a slight increase in the heat load.…”

Section: Rcp26mentioning

confidence: 96%

“…Mean annual number of summer days inKraków for 1971Kraków for -2000 and future climate projections for the time period2021-2050 (center) and 2071-2100 (right) using the model simulations for the RCP4.5 (bottom) and RCP8.5 (top) scenarios. Source: Adapted fromBokwa et al 2018.…”

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confidence: 99%

Analysis of Heat Waves and Urban Heat Island Effects in Central European Cities and Implications for Urban Planning

2020

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DisclaimerThis document is the product of work performed by World Bank staff and consultants. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this document do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denomination, and other information shown in any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.

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“…The modelling process is based on LCZs as appropriate urban parameterization. Our previous studies of the thermal indices draw attention to the importance of this topic: in case of Szeged there is a remarkable increase in different thermal indices by the end of the century, namely, a strong warming trend can be expected (Skarbit, N. and Gál, T. 2016;Bokwa, A. et al 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projections of the urban and intra-urban scale thermal effects of climate change in the 21st century for cities in the Carpathian Basin

2021

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This study evaluates the pattern of a nighttime climate index namely the tropical nights (Tmin ≥ 20ºC) during the 21st century in several different sized cities in the Carpathian Basin. For the modelling, MUKLIMO_3 microclimatic model and the cuboid statistical method were applied. In order to ensure the proper representation of the thermal characteristics of an urban landscape, the Local Climate Zone (LCZ) system was used as landuse information. For this work, LCZ maps were produced using WUDAPT methodology. The climatic input of the model was the Carpatclim dataset for the reference period (1981–2010) and EURO-CORDEX regional model outputs for the future time periods (2021–2050, 2071–2100) and emission scenarios (RCP4.5, RCP8.5). As results show, there would be a remarkable increase in the number of tropical nights along the century, and there is a clearly recognizable increase owing to urban landform. In the near past, the number of the index was 6–10 nights higher in the city core than the rural area where the number of this index was negligible. In the near future this urban-rural trend is the same, however, there is a slight increase (2–5 nights) in the index in city cores. At the end of the century, the results of the two emission scenarios become distinct. In the case of RCP4.5 the urban values are about 15–25 nights, what is less stressful compared to the 30–50 nights according to RCP8.5. The results clearly highlight that the effect of urban climate and climate change would cause serious risk for urban dwellers, therefore it is crucial to perform climate mitigation and adaptation actions on both global and urban scales.

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Urban climate in Central European cities and global climate change

Cited by 25 publications

References 27 publications

Applying urban climate model in prediction mode—evaluation of MUKLIMO_3 model performance for Austrian cities based on the summer period of 2019

Applying urban climate model in prediction mode—evaluation of MUKLIMO_3 model performance for Austrian cities based on the summer period of 2019

Analysis of Heat Waves and Urban Heat Island Effects in Central European Cities and Implications for Urban Planning

Projections of the urban and intra-urban scale thermal effects of climate change in the 21st century for cities in the Carpathian Basin

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