Urban and travel changes in the greater Toronto area and the transferability of trip‐generation models

Abstract

This paper discusses the important urban and travel changes in the Greater Toronto Area between 1964 and 1986, and reports the findings of a study into the temporal transferability of home-based trip generation models, estimated on 1964 data, and applied in prediction on 1986 survey data.Changes in urban structure include: a decline in average household size; decentralisation in population and employment; a change in household composition, reflected by an increase in the following: number of working members, household-vehicle ownership, and number of householdmembers licenced to drive; an increase in the average number of trips made per person and per household, notwithstanding the decline in average household size; an increase in car-use and a decline in the average vehicle occupancy.Disaggregate measures of transferability indicate the transferred 1964 home-based tripproduction models provide some useful information on trip-making in 1986. Regional forecasts, however, show most 1964-models have significant prediction bias, particularly for non-worktrips. Poor transferability of 1964 non-work trip-production models is not entirely attributable to transfer-bias.

Spatial Transferability: Analysis of the Regional Automobile-Specific Household-Level Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Emissions Models

“…It is expected that as transfer bias increases, more weight is assigned to the coefficients of the application region and less weight on the estimation region. These results are in agreement with past studies, which found similar patterns of prediction performance of these transfer methods (Badoe and Steuart 1997). Although the CTE and BU gave superior prediction results as measured in terms of transfer R 2 and TI as shown in Tables 2 through 6, in comparison with the JCE and Naïve transfer methods, they are computationally intractable.…”

“…Residents residing in land uses with higher population density are likely to be closer to employment services relative to those who live in lower density, hence making comparatively shorter trips per year than their counterparts. Additionally, most people put considerable weight on travel costs in their location decisions and reside fairly closer to the employment locations (Badoe and Steuart 1997). This translates to shorter travel distance per year and less CO 2 emissions than in areas with lower employment density.…”

“…The measures indicate how well a transferred model predicts the estimated CO 2 emissions in the application region. These measures have been widely used in past studies to assess prediction performance of model transferability (Karasmaa 2007, Ben-Akiva and Morikawa 1990, Badoe and Steuart 1997. Ideally, the measures are used to assess the prediction performance of transferred parameters from the estimation region for predicting CO 2 emissions of the application region.…”

Elderly Mobility: Demographic and Spatial Analysis of Trip Making in the Hamilton CMA, Canada

“…A review of existing trip generation research helps to inform our choice of variables. Trip generation has been studied in the past from a number of different topical and technical perspectives, including the influence of land use on travel (for example, Boarnet and Sarmiento, 1998), the spatial or temporal transferability of trip generation models (for example, Agyemang-Duah and Hall, 1997;Badoe and Steuart, 1997) and the relative proficiency of different modelling approaches (for example, Pas, 1978). More recently, the work of Schmöcker et al (2005a) has cast an explicit focus on the trip generation rates of the elderly and disabled, while Smith and Sylvestre ( 2001) have explored the travel behaviour determinants of the suburban elderly.…”

Appraisal of Temporal Transferability of Cold Region Winter Weather Traffic Models for Major Highway Segments in Alberta Canada

“…Transfer results were evaluated using the transferred R 2 value, root mean square error (RMSE) values, and the transferability index. It was concluded that the transferred model gives a good prediction of total home-based trips and home-based work trips but a poor prediction of home-based non-work trips [12]. Doubleday studied the temporal transferability of a cross classification type linear regression model using age, employment, vehicle ownership, and children as the determining factors.…”