Upward Altitudinal Shifts in Habitat Suitability of Mountain Vipers since the Last Glacial Maximum

Abstract

We determined the effects of past and future climate changes on the distribution of the Montivipera raddei species complex (MRC) that contains rare and endangered viper species limited to Iran, Turkey and Armenia. We also investigated the current distribution of MRC to locate unidentified isolated populations as well as to evaluate the effectiveness of the current network of protected areas for their conservation. Present distribution of MRC was modeled based on ecological variables and model performance was evaluated by field visits. Some individuals at the newly identified populations showed uncommon morphological characteristics. The distribution map of MRC derived through modeling was then compared with the distribution of protected areas in the region. We estimated the effectiveness of the current protected area network to be 10%, which would be sufficient for conserving this group of species, provided adequate management policies and practices are employed. We further modeled the distribution of MRC in the past (21,000 years ago) and under two scenarios in the future (to 2070). These models indicated that climatic changes probably have been responsible for an upward shift in suitable habitats of MRC since the Last Glacial Maximum, leading to isolation of allopatric populations. Distribution will probably become much more restricted in the future as a result of the current rate of global warming. We conclude that climate change most likely played a major role in determining the distribution pattern of MRC, restricting allopatric populations to mountaintops due to habitat alterations. This long-term isolation has facilitated unique local adaptations among MRC populations, which requires further investigation. The suitable habitat patches identified through modeling constitute optimized solutions for inclusion in the network of protected areas in the region.

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“…However, considering the results of Terink et al (2013) (mentioned above), decrease in predicted areas through the years that have been reported for some non-fish organisms in Iran or adjacent countries (e.g. Ashraf Vaghefi, Mousavi, Abbaspour, Srinivasan, & Yang 2013;Yousefi et al, 2015;Tok, Koyun, & Çiçek, 2016), it seems decrease in potential predicted areas due to future climate changes maybe the most common pattern for freshwater fishes in the Middle East.…”

“…The Community Climate System Model (CCSM) is one of the most respected and recent GCM climate projections that is used in the Fifth Assessment IPCC report and is a coupled climate model composed of four separate models simultaneously simulating different components (atmosphere, Ocean, land surface and sea/ice) and one central coupler component (Gent, Danabasoglu, Donner, Holland, & Zhang, 2011;Domșa, Sándor & Mihalca, 2016). CCSM4 used previously to assess the possible bio-geographical changes in the climatic niche of Montivipera raddei species complex limited to Iran, Turkey and Armenia over the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and over the future by Yousefi et al (2015), then to study of effects of future climate changes on the distribution of the Houbara, Chlamydotis macqueenii, in Iran by Yousefi et al (2017) and also to make inferences about the evolutionary history of the Persian Jird, Meriones persicus distributed from eastern Anatolia to Afghanistan and western Pakistan for the LGM by Dianat, Darvish, Cornette, Aliabadian, & Nicolas (2016). The CCSM4 model was chosen for the Alburnus as apparently most utilized and better simulated the past and future distribution patterns of some vertebrates in this geographical area.…”

Mitochondrial DNA variation and Quaternary range dynamics in the endangered Yellow Spotted Mountain Newt, Neurergus derjugini (Caudata, Salamandridae)

“…As a consequence, Neurergus derjugini might have been more widely distributed during the LGM and might have occupied also areas in lower elevations situated north‐westward of the current distribution edge (Djamali et al., ). The gradual rise of temperature in mid‐Zagros Mountains after the LGM likely forced newts to shift their distribution upward to higher altitudes (Yousefi et al., ).…”

“…The gradual rise of temperature in mid-Zagros Mountains after the LGM likely forced newts to shift their distribution upward to higher altitudes (Yousefi et al, 2015).…”

Developing snakebite risk model using venomous snake habitat suitability as an indicating factor: An application of species distribution models in public health research

“…Species distribution models are becoming important tools in public health research [12, 94-103]. We encourage public hearth researchers to apply species distribution models in developing snakebite risk map using venomous snakes’ habitat suitability as an indicator, especially in data poor regions of the world [27, 52-54]. Our approach has the potential for practical application in other countries whit high snakebite risk.…”