Upgrading or polarization? Occupational change in Britain, Germany, Spain and Switzerland, 1990-2008

Abstract

We analyse occupational change over the last two decades in Britain, Germany, Spain and Switzerland: which jobs have been expanding-high-paid jobs, lowpaid jobs or both? Based on individual-level data, four hypotheses are examined: skill-biased technical change, routinization, skill supply evolution and wagesetting institutions. We find massive occupational upgrading which matches educational expansion: employment expanded most at the top of the occupational hierarchy, among managers and professionals. In parallel, intermediary occupations (clerks and production workers) declined relative to those at the bottom (interpersonal service workers). This U-shaped pattern of upgrading is consistent with the routinization hypothesis: technology seems a better substitute for average-paid clerical and manufacturing jobs than for low-end interpersonal service jobs. Yet country differences in low-paid services suggest that wage-setting institutions channel technological change into more or less polarized patterns of upgrading. Moreover, immigration surges in Britain and Spain seem decisive in having provided the low-skilled labour supply necessary to fill low-paid jobs.

Explaining job polarisation in Spain from a task perspective

“…On the other hand, Fernández-Macías (2012) find heterogeneous results in Western European countries and conclude that there is not a clear and universal pattern of a pervasive polarisation. 3 As for Spain, conclusions also diverge between job polarisation (Anghel et al 2014) and occupational upgrading (Oesch and Rodríguez-Menés 2011;and Eurofound 2015). 4 While in the US wage polarisation has occurred hand with hand with job polarisation (Autor et al 2006), papers based on European countries do not find the same result.…”

“…For example, Anghel et al (2014) conclude that the employment structure became more polarised between 1997 and 2012, while Oesch and Rodríguez-Menés (2011) and Eurofound (2015) show a pattern of progressive upgrading for the same period. Moreover, two recent studies covering Spain, based on the European Labour Force Survey, diverge in their results.…”

“…Using the same period of analysis, Fernández-Macías (2012) conversely shows an upgrading process (high-wage occupations expanding at the expenses of low-wage jobs) and does not provide evidence of a pervasive polarisation. These five papers have relied on graphical inspection to identify the phenomenon: terciles (Goos et al 2009(Goos et al , 2014Fernández-Macías 2012), or quintiles (Eurofound 2015;and Oesch and Rodríguez-Menés 2011).…”

The Rise of Precarious Employment in Germany

“…This literature documents a polarization in the labor market between the high skilled in good jobs and the low skilled in precarious jobs. One result of this shift could be a rise in precarious employment (Goos and Manning 2007;Goos et al 2009;Oesch and Rodriguez Menes 2011).…”

Estimación de la carga de enfermedad por incapacidad laboral permanente en España durante el período 2009-2012

“…Unos resultados que, a diferencia de los nuestros, están basados en el conjunto de la población y resumen tanto la discapacidad como la mortalidad. El estudio de enfermedades crónicas en población activa tiene especial interés ante de los cambios que se están produciendo en el mercado laboral, especialmente en España y en el conjunto de Europa, donde se está experimentando una creciente tasa de desempleo juvenil que retrasa la entrada al mercado laboral de los jóvenes 24 , el incremento de la edad de jubilación 2 y los cambios en las condiciones laborales con un incremento de la flexibilidad laboral externa (cambios entre empresas) 25 . En este sentido, un reciente estudio que también utiliza la MCVL, encuentra que las personas con una categoría ocupacional manual y no cualificada, al igual que si tiene numerosos contratos temporales, presentan significativamente más APVLP debido a la IP (sin diagnósti-cos) que las personas con una categoría ocupacional no manual y cualificada, o con una trayectoria más estable 26 .…”