Updating regionalization of precipitation in Ecuador

Ilbay-Yupa, Mercy; Lavado‐Casimiro, Waldo; Rau, Pedro; Zubieta, Ricardo; Castillón, Fiorela

doi:10.1007/s00704-020-03476-x

Cited by 30 publications

(27 citation statements)

References 83 publications

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“…In general, cluster analysis studies of precipitation in SA regions use hierarchical methods [78,[80][81][82]85,87,[89][90][91][92][93][94][95][96][97][98][99], given that these techniques provide satisfactory results and have a variety of clustering methods and several dissimilarity metrics to categorize the variables into homogeneous groups [91]. Considering the non-hierarchical method, the few existing studies in SA examine specific regions of the continent, such as Bolivia [79], Argentina [83], Chile [84], and Ecuador [86]. Whilst there is a scarcity of works using the non-hierarchical clustering for the whole SA, studies that employed the method in Africa [107] and Europe [108] concluded that the methodology guarantees good results and is appropriate for analyzing precipitation regimes.…”

Section: Cluster Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…So, there is still a gap in the literature for redoing this work with statistical methods, such as cluster analysis. Until now, studies involving a precipitation clustering process focused only on specific regions of the continent, such as the tropical SA [78], Bolivia [79], Argentina [80][81][82][83], Chile [84], Colombia [85], Ecuador [86], Brazil [87,88], and Brazilian sectors, such as the northeast [89][90][91][92][93][94], south and southeast [95][96][97], central-west [98], and the Amazonian portion [99]. In this scenario, the present study's relevance is justified not only for identifying homogeneous rainfall regions in SA considering a recent period (1993-2016) and an objective methodology but also by evaluating the skill of last generation climate predictions provided by ECMWF for South American continent.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A New Look into the South America Precipitation Regimes: Observation and Forecast

Ferreira

Reboita

2022

Atmosphere

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South America is a vast continent characterized by diverse atmospheric phenomena and climate regimes. In this context, seasonal climate predictions are helpful for decision-making in several relevant socioeconomic segments in this territory, such as agriculture and energy generation. Thus, the present work evaluates the performance of ECMWF-SEAS5 in simulating the South American precipitation regimes by applying a non-hierarchical clustering technique. In addition, the study describes the main atmospheric systems that cause precipitation in each cluster and updates a previous work performed in South America in 2010. As a result, ECMWF-SEAS5 simulates (with good correspondence) the eight climate regimes identified in the analysis of precipitation from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC). Moreover, ECMWF-SEAS5 has a satisfactory ability in representing the rainfall regime in low and medium climate predictability regions, such as central and southern South America. ECMWF-SEAS5 has good performance in the climate characterization of South America and it gives us confidence in using its seasonal climate predictions throughout the continent.

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Section: Cluster Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A New Look into the South America Precipitation Regimes: Observation and Forecast

Ferreira

Reboita

2022

Atmosphere

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“…In South America, there has been little discussion about precipitation outside the South American Monsoon (SAM) spanning the equator [13]. This region is characterized by complex local topography interacting with the annual migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) [7,[13][14][15][16]. The ITCZ is a tropical belt of deep convective clouds where heat and moisture-laden surface trade winds converge, forming a zone of increased precipitation [2,17].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rainwater Isotopic Composition in the Ecuadorian Andes and Amazon Reflects Cross-Equatorial Flow Seasonality

Vargas

Chimborazo

László

et al. 2022

Water

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The variability of the rainfall stable isotopic values (δ2Hp, δ18Op) in the Ecuadorian Amazon to the Andes presents a marked local “altitude” effect. At the same time, this complex orography creates diverse precipitation regimes (unimodal, bimodal, and three-modal) that make it difficult to establish a relationship with the local amount. Nevertheless, stations along these regions show a similar intra-annual isotopic variability, with lower values during MAM and ON. In contrast, higher values are found during DJF and JAS in a w-shaped pattern, suggesting a common regional controller. A monthly δ2Hp and δ18Op collection campaign was established in Central Ecuador (n = 30) to complement stations biased towards the northern and southern parts. Based on back trajectory analysis, the results demonstrated that moisture arrives from two primary sources: the Tropical North Atlantic (DJFM) and the Amazon Basin (JAS). Nevertheless, their convergence (AMJ and ON) is the crucial factor modulating the lowest isotopic values. Precisely, this convergence is stronger at the V-Index region (5° S–5° N, 65°–75° W), where the wind seasonality and reversal at low levels are enhanced, allowing the inter-hemispheric moisture flux transport (cross-equatorial flow). We propose that the amount of rainfall located at the V-Index region is a more robust approach for explaining the δ2Hp and δ18Op variability rather than the local amount.

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“…There are additional challenges due to the complexity of droughts [95,96] and GR2M model performance associated with input data uncertainty [62]. Ecuador's environment should also be considered a special case because of the country's location, as it is influenced by the Humboldt current, the El Niño phenomenon, trade wind dynamics, the position of the intertropical convergence zone and the presence of the Andes mountain range [36,[97][98][99][100], which together give this area great climatic variability.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of Climate Change on the Precipitation and Streamflow Regimes in Equatorial Regions: Guayas River Basin

Ilbay-Yupa

Ilbay

Zubieta

et al. 2021

Water

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The effects of climate change projected for 2050 to 2079 relative to the 1968–2014 reference period were evaluated using 39 CMIP5 models under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario in the Guayas River basin. The monthly normalized precipitation index (SPI) was used in this study to assess the impact of climate change for wet events and droughts from a meteorological perspective. The GR2M model was used to project changes in the streamflow of the Daule River. The climate projection was based on the four rigorously selected models to represent the climate of the study area. On average, an increase in temperature (~2 °C) and precipitation (~6%) is expected. A 7% increase in precipitation would result in a 10% increase in streamflow for flood periods, while an 8% decrease in precipitation could result in approximately a 60% reduction in flow for dry periods. The analysis of droughts shows that they will be more frequent and prolonged in the highlands (Andes) and the middle part of the basin. In the future, wet periods will be less frequent but of greater duration and intensity on the Ecuadorian coast. These results point to future problems such as water deficit in the dry season but also increased streamflow for floods during the wet season. This information should be taken into account in designing strategies for adaptation to climate change.

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Updating regionalization of precipitation in Ecuador

Cited by 30 publications

References 83 publications

A New Look into the South America Precipitation Regimes: Observation and Forecast

A New Look into the South America Precipitation Regimes: Observation and Forecast

Rainwater Isotopic Composition in the Ecuadorian Andes and Amazon Reflects Cross-Equatorial Flow Seasonality

Impacts of Climate Change on the Precipitation and Streamflow Regimes in Equatorial Regions: Guayas River Basin

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