Updating piping reliability with field performance observations

Schweckendiek, T.; Vrouwenvelder, A.C.W.M.; Calle, Eusebi

doi:10.1016/j.strusafe.2013.10.002

Cited by 43 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…The understanding of failures mechanisms can be significantly improved by the analysis of failure patterns, hindcasting of historical levee failures, and other performance observations such as monitored near-failures or field observations during extreme loading [7]. Individual efforts have been undertaken to document failures of levees after disasters (e.g.…”

Section: International Levee Performance Database (Ilpd)mentioning

confidence: 99%

On the importance of analyzing flood defense failures

et al. 2016

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Abstract. Flood defense failures are rare events but when they do occur lead to significant amounts of damage. The defenses are usually designed for rather low-frequency hydraulic loading and as such typically at least high enough to prevent overflow. When they fail, flood defenses like levees built with modern design codes usually either fail due to wave overtopping or geotechnical failure mechanisms such as instability or internal erosion. Subsequently geotechnical failures could trigger an overflow leading for the breach to grow in size Not only the conditions relevant for these failure mechanisms are highly uncertain, also the model uncertainty in geomechanical, internal erosion models, or breach models are high compared to other structural models. Hence, there is a need for better validation and calibration of models or, in other words, better insight in model uncertainty. As scale effects typically play an important role and full-scale testing is challenging and costly, historic flood defense failures can be used to provide insights into the real failure processes and conditions. The recently initiated SAFElevee project at Delft University of Technology aims to exploit this source of information by performing back analysis of levee failures at different level of detail. Besides detailed process based analyses, the project aims to investigate spatial and temporal patterns in deformation as a function of the hydrodynamic loading using satellite radar interferometry (i.e. PS-InSAR) in order to examine its relation with levee failure mechanisms. The project aims to combine probabilistic approaches with the mechanics of the various relevant failure mechanisms to reduce model uncertainty and propose improvements to assessment and design models. This paper describes the approach of the study to levee breach analysis and the use of satellites for breach initiation analysis, both adopted within the SAFElevee project.

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Section: International Levee Performance Database (Ilpd)mentioning

confidence: 99%

On the importance of analyzing flood defense failures

et al. 2016

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“…Schweckendiek et al (2014) demonstrate how observations of good performance (e.g. survival or no damage), as well as of bad performance (e.g.…”

Section: Learning From Observationsmentioning

confidence: 79%

Briefing: Lessons learned from failures of flood defences

Jonkman¹,

Schweckendiek²

2015

Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers - Forensic En

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“…Hence, they can be solved by virtually any standard reliability method (SRM, see Straub and Papaioannou 2015), except that first-order approximations may not work well for the numerator part. The implementation with sampling techniques such as Monte Carlo simulation, Importance Sampling or Subset Simulation is straightforward (Schweckendiek et al 2014). …”

Section: Application To Slope Instabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Reliability Updating with Survival Information for Dike Slope Stability Using Fragility Curves

et al. 2017

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Dikes and levees play a crucial role in flood protection. The main causes of levee failures are of geotechnical nature. Geotechnical failure modes are also the main contributors to the probability of failure of flood defenses such as levees due to the large uncertainties in ground conditions. Hence, information on ground conditions and soil properties is crucial in safety assessments and retrofitting designs of levees. The experience in practice with designs and risk assessments is that even with a substantial amount of site investigation and laboratory testing the uncertainties in soil properties often remain large. One way to further reduce uncertainties is to include past performance information.The present papers shows how information of survived loads in the past can be incorporated in reliability assessments by means of Bayesian posterior analysis using the same (physics-based) performance models as the prior reliability assessments. The incorporation of survival information leads to reduced uncertainties and probabilities of failure. Furthermore, an approximate approach using fragility curves is proposed, mainly to make problems with computationally expensive performance functions tractable.After briefly recapping Bayesian reliability updating, we provide examples for slope stability of (flood protection) dikes. The examples illustrate that posterior analysis enables us to reduce the large prior uncertainties in soil strength parameters by "eliminating" implausible samples or regions of the joint PDF of the strength properties using the evidence of survived load conditions (i.e. water levels). The results suggest that the effect of updating the probability of failure with survival evidence can be considerable, especially when the uncertainty in the strength properties dominates the reliability. Dominant strength uncertainties are rather typical in geotechnical engineering, as opposed to, for example, structural engineering, implying that using the method is promising also for other geotechnical applications.

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Updating piping reliability with field performance observations

Cited by 43 publications

References 4 publications

On the importance of analyzing flood defense failures

On the importance of analyzing flood defense failures

Briefing: Lessons learned from failures of flood defences

Reliability Updating with Survival Information for Dike Slope Stability Using Fragility Curves

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