Updating IDF Curves Under Climate Change: Impact on Rainfall-Induced Runoff in Urban Basins

Kourtis, Ioannis M.; Nalbantis, Ioannis; Tsakiris, George; Psiloglou, Basil Ε.; Tsihrintzis, Vassiliοs A.

doi:10.1007/s11269-022-03252-8

Cited by 10 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 74 publications

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“…Another point for discussion is the uncertainty of using theoretical statistical distributions for extreme floods. Figure 3 shows an underestimation of rainfall depth compared to the largest recorded rainfall, which is the return year of 58, but this type of discrepancy is also shown in previous research [41]. This could be reasonable, but the fact remains that high return periods have uncertainty in estimation and must be considered in using theoretical statistical distributions.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 62%

Estimating Flood Inundation in Urban Areas Using a Scenario Generation Method and Inundation Graphs

Shin,

Rhee

2024

Applied Sciences

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As the frequency and intensity of natural and social disasters increase due to climate change, damage caused by disasters affects urban areas and facilities. Of those disasters, inundation occurs in urban areas due to rising water surface elevation because of concentrated rainfall from storm surges or urban drainage system failures. For this research, a scenario generation method for estimating flood inundation was developed to analyze the flood effects on urban areas to prepare for disasters and minimize damage. A scenario generation method using various distribution functions and return periods was developed and applied to create input values for the flow model for inundation analysis. By simulating multiple scenarios using a two-dimensional flow model and storing its results into a graph-form database called an inundation graph, it is possible to assess the probability and potential impact of different flood events quickly, which could be later used for disaster response and prevention. The flood risk and flood vulnerability of each section of the urban area could be evaluated based on the input data from the scenarios and the results of the flood analysis.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 62%

Estimating Flood Inundation in Urban Areas Using a Scenario Generation Method and Inundation Graphs

Shin,

Rhee

2024

Applied Sciences

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“…In stormwater infrastructure design, IDF curves are widely utilized to capture the properties of extreme rainfall events (Cook et al, 2020 ). However, there is a growing recognition among numerous organizations about the necessity to update IDF curves to account for anticipated alterations in rainfall patterns caused by climate change (Bibi & Tekesa, 2023 ; Kourtis et al, 2022 ; Martel et al, 2021 ; Şen & Kahya, 2021 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change impacts on rainfall intensity–duration–frequency curves in local scale catchments

Xu,

Bravo de Guenni,

Córdova

2024

Environ Monit Assess

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The increasing intensity and frequency of rainfall events, a critical aspect of climate change, pose significant challenges in the construction of intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves for climate projection. These curves are crucial for infrastructure development, but the non-stationarity of extreme rainfall raises concerns about their adequacy under future climate conditions. This research addresses these challenges by investigating the reasons behind the IPCC climate report’s evidence about the validity that rainfall follows the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relationship, which suggests a 7% increase in precipitation per 1 °C increase in temperature. Our study provides guidelines for adjusting IDF curves in the future, considering both current and future climates. We calculate extreme precipitation changes and scaling factors for small urban catchments in Barranquilla, Colombia, a tropical region, using the bootstrapping method. This reveals the occurrence of a sub-CC relationship, suggesting that the generalized 7% figure may not be universally applicable. In contrast, our comparative analysis with Illinois, USA, an inland city in the north temperate zone, shows adherence to the CC relationship. This emphasizes the need for local parameter calculations rather than relying solely on the generalized 7% figure.

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“…Several studies have highlighted the importance of updating IDF curves for climate change [8][9][10][11][12][13][14]. Yan et al (2021) summarized observed changes in urban short-duration extreme precipitation and introduced two major approaches for updating IDF curves [8].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Kourtis et al (2022) introduced a generic framework for updating IDF curves considering climate change. Their results showed that the variability in future climate projections is significant [11]. Li et al (2017) used a high-resolution RCM to predict the changes in sub-daily design rainfalls for the Greater Sydney region in Australia [15].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We selected the most representative climate models for Sydney for the purpose of generating PFs and IDF curves. This is to reduce the uncertainties in the projected IDF curves produced using difference models shown in previous studies [4,10,11]. Climate model selection was performed based on the models' performance for extreme series in the historical period, following Ghasemi Tousi et al ( 2021) [4].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Non-Stationary Precipitation Frequency Estimates for Resilient Infrastructure Design in a Changing Climate: A Case Study in Sydney

et al. 2023

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The intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curve is a commonly utilized tool for estimating extreme rainfall events that are used for many purposes including flood analysis. Extreme rainfall events are expected to become more intense under the changing climate, and there is a need to account for non-stationarity IDF curves to mitigate an underestimation of the risks associated with extreme rainfall events. Sydney, Australia, has recently started experiencing flooding under climate change and more intense rainfall events. This study evaluated the impact of climate change on altering the precipitation frequency estimates (PFs) used in generating IDF curves at Sydney Airport. Seven general circulation models (GCMs) were obtained, and the best models in terms of providing the extreme series were selected. The ensemble of the best models was used for comparing the projected 24 h PFs in 2031–2060 with historical values provided by Australian Rainfall and Runoff (ARR). The historical PFs consistently underestimate the projected 24 h PFs for all return periods. The projected 24 h 100 yr rainfall events are increased by 9% to 41% for the least and worst-case scenario compared to ARR historical PFs. These findings highlight the need for incorporating the impact of climate change on PFs and IDF curves in Sydney toward building a more prepared and resilient community. The findings of this study can also aid other communities in adapting the same framework for developing more robust and adaptive approaches to reducing extreme rainfall events’ repercussions under changing climates.

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Updating IDF Curves Under Climate Change: Impact on Rainfall-Induced Runoff in Urban Basins

Cited by 10 publications

References 74 publications

Estimating Flood Inundation in Urban Areas Using a Scenario Generation Method and Inundation Graphs

Estimating Flood Inundation in Urban Areas Using a Scenario Generation Method and Inundation Graphs

Climate change impacts on rainfall intensity–duration–frequency curves in local scale catchments

Non-Stationary Precipitation Frequency Estimates for Resilient Infrastructure Design in a Changing Climate: A Case Study in Sydney

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