Updating estimates of low-streamflow statistics to account for possible trends

Blum, Alan; Archfield, Stacey A.; Hirsch, Robert M.; Vogel, Richard M.; Kiang, Julie E.; Dudley, Robert W.

doi:10.1080/02626667.2019.1655148

Cited by 17 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…As for rainfall, the impacts of warming generally result in increased rainfall in winter (increase in temperature) and in summer (increase in evapotranspiration) [6][7][8]. Despite numerous studies on the temporal variability of minimum flows in the context of global warming [9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26], few have focused on analyzing the impacts of these changes in seasonal precipitation regimes on minimum flows. Furthermore, the impacts of global warming on minimum flows can be amplified or mitigated by land use, particularly agriculture, as observed in a number of watersheds in certain agricultural regions of the USA [13,27].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of Agricultural Areas on Spatio-Temporal Variability of Daily Minimum Extreme Flows during the Transitional Seasons (Spring and Fall) in Southern Quebec

Assani

Zeroual

Roy

et al. 2021

Water

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Several statistical methods were used to analyze the spatio-temporal variability of daily minimum extreme flows (DMEF) in 17 watersheds—divided into three homogenous hydroclimatic regions of southern Quebec—during the transitional seasons (spring and fall), during the 1930–2019 period. Regarding spatial variability, there was a clear difference between the south and north shores of the St. Lawrence River, south of 47° N. DMEF were lower in the more agricultural watersheds on the south shore during transitional seasons compared to those on the north shore. A correlation analysis showed that this difference in flows was mainly due to more agricultural areas ((larger area (>20%) on the south than on the north shore (<5%)). An analysis of the long-term trend of these flows showed that the DMEF of south-shore rivers have increased significantly since the 1960s, during the fall (October to December), due to an increase in rainfall and a reduction in cultivated land, which increased the infiltration in the region. Although there was little difference between the two shores in the spring (April to June), we observed a decrease in minimum extreme flows in half (50%) of the south-shore rivers located north of 47° N.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of Agricultural Areas on Spatio-Temporal Variability of Daily Minimum Extreme Flows during the Transitional Seasons (Spring and Fall) in Southern Quebec

Assani

Zeroual

Roy

et al. 2021

Water

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“…That approach was found to result in improvements in accuracy and reductions in bias over the standard approach of using the entire historical record. Vogel & Kroll (2020) generalized the results of Blum et al (2019) and derived expressions for computing the optimal length of the recent subset record resulting in minimum variance estimators of the low-flow statistic. An alternative parametric yet parsimonious approach introduced by Serago & Vogel (2018) for nonstationary FFA could easily be adapted for use with LSS and a wide range of possible probability distributions.…”

Section: Nonstationary Low-flow Frequency Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Numerous procedures summarized in the above review articles on nonstationary FFA are now available and easily adapted for performing nonstationary low-flow frequency analysis. Promising approaches include a nonparametric approach tested by Blum et al (2019) on LSS and further analyzed by Vogel & Kroll (2020), and a parsimonious nonstationary approach introduced by Serago & Vogel (2018) for FFA, which could be easily adapted for use with LSS. Blum et al (2019) tested a new approach to nonstationary low-flow frequency analysis that applies a stationary nonparametric quantile estimator to the most recent subset of the historical streamflow record, which is expected to exhibit stationary behavior.…”

Section: Nonstationary Low-flow Frequency Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Promising approaches include a nonparametric approach tested by Blum et al (2019) on LSS and further analyzed by Vogel & Kroll (2020), and a parsimonious nonstationary approach introduced by Serago & Vogel (2018) for FFA, which could be easily adapted for use with LSS. Blum et al (2019) tested a new approach to nonstationary low-flow frequency analysis that applies a stationary nonparametric quantile estimator to the most recent subset of the historical streamflow record, which is expected to exhibit stationary behavior. That approach was found to result in improvements in accuracy and reductions in bias over the standard approach of using the entire historical record.…”

Section: Nonstationary Low-flow Frequency Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

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On the need for streamflow drought frequency guidelines in the U.S.

Vogel

Kroll

2021

Water Policy

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Extreme drought and resulting low streamflows occur throughout the U.S., causing billions of dollars in annual losses, detrimentally impacting ecosystems, as well as agricultural, hydropower, navigation, water supply, recreation, and a myriad of other water resource systems, leading to reductions in both the effectiveness and resiliency of our water resource infrastructure. Since 1966, with the introduction of Bulletin 13 titled ‘Methods of Flow Frequency Analysis’, the U.S. adopted uniform guidelines for performing flood flow frequency analysis to ensure and enable all federal agencies concerned with water resource design, planning, and management under flood conditions to obtain sensible, consistent, and reproducible estimators of flood flow statistics. Remarkably, over one-half century later, no uniform national U.S. guidelines for hydrologic drought streamflow frequency analysis exist, and the various assorted guidelines that do exist are not reliable because (1) they are based on methods developed for floods, which are distinctly different than low streamflows and (2) the methods do not take advantage of the myriad of advances in flood and low streamflow frequency analyses over the last 50 years. We provide a justification for the need for developing national guidelines for streamflow drought frequency analysis as an analog to the existing national guidelines for flood frequency analysis. Those guidelines should result in improved water resources design, planning, operations, and management under low streamflow conditions throughout the U.S. and could prove useful elsewhere.

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“…These gages contained 9-31 years of data from 1989 through 2019. Data prior to 1989 were not used as studies have indicated that low-flow statistics based on the recent past rather than the full record may more satisfactorily represent present or near-future values (Blum et al, 2019). The study basins used in the development of the regression equations ranged from 3 to 1,340 km 2 (km 2 ) (1.30-516 mile 2 ).…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Model estimated baseflow for streams with endangered Atlantic Salmon in Maine,USA

Lombard

Dudley

Collins

et al. 2021

River Research & Apps

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We present a regression model for estimating mean August baseflow per square kilometer of drainage area to help resource managers assess relative amounts of baseflow in Maine streams with Atlantic Salmon habitat. The model was derived from mean August baseflows computed at 31 USGS streamflow gages in Maine. We use an ordinary least squares regression model to estimate mean August baseflow per unit drainage area from two explanatory variables: percentage of the basin underlain by sand and gravel aquifers and mean July precipitation in the basin. This model provides the ability to estimate mean August baseflow in cubic meters per second per square kilometer of basin area on user-selected, ungaged sites throughout Maine south of 46 21 0 55 00 N latitude. The model has an adjusted R 2 of 0.78 and a mean 95% prediction interval of plus or minus 0.002 cubic meters per second per square kilometer. A map of the Narraguagus watershed in eastern coastal Maine shows reaches color coded by relative amounts of baseflow predicted by the model as an example of how this method could be applied throughout Maine. The map can be used to identify reaches with relatively higher amounts of baseflow during summer low flows for habitat conservation and restoration work. These areas have the potential to be high-quality habitat for Atlantic salmon and other cold-water fish because baseflows are known to moderate stream temperatures in summer low-flow periods.

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Updating estimates of low-streamflow statistics to account for possible trends

Cited by 17 publications

References 46 publications

Impacts of Agricultural Areas on Spatio-Temporal Variability of Daily Minimum Extreme Flows during the Transitional Seasons (Spring and Fall) in Southern Quebec

Impacts of Agricultural Areas on Spatio-Temporal Variability of Daily Minimum Extreme Flows during the Transitional Seasons (Spring and Fall) in Southern Quebec

On the need for streamflow drought frequency guidelines in the U.S.

Model estimated baseflow for streams with endangered Atlantic Salmon in Maine,USA

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