Updated 24‐year trend of Type 1 diabetes incidence in children in Poland reveals a sinusoidal pattern and sustained increase

Abstract

Aims To present the incidence trend for Type 1 diabetes in Polish children aged 0–14 years, updated using data collected during 2005–2012, and assess the reliability of the predictive model constructed previously using the 1989–2004 database. Methods Children aged < 15 years with newly diagnosed Type 1 diabetes are recorded prospectively (EURODIAB criteria) in several regional registers in Poland. Age‐ and gender‐standardized incidence rates for Type 1 diabetes were calculated per 100 000 persons/year. Incidence rates were analysed in terms of the dependency on age, gender, geographical region and population density. Incidence rate trends over time were modelled using generalized linear models. Results The mean standardized incidence for 1989–2012 was 12.72 per 100 000 persons/year [95% confidence interval (CI), 11.35 to 14.21]. Over the 24‐year observation period, the incidence increased from 5.36 to 22.74 per 100 000 persons/year. The lowest incidence rate was in children aged 0–4 years (8.35, 95% CI 7.27 to 9.57 per 100 000 persons/year). There was no difference between genders, or urban and rural regions. Incidence rates were higher in northern compared with southern Poland [14.04 (95% CI 12.59 to 15.63) vs. 11.94 (95% CI 10.62 to 13.39) per 100 000 persons/year]. The new data corrected the earlier predictive model by changing the estimates of some factors related to patient age, gender and their interactions with the remaining factors. The incidence rate shows periodic 5.33‐year fluctuations. The periodicity component allows for a more accurate prediction of the incidence rate over time. Conclusions This cohort study reveals a sustained increase in Type 1 diabetes incidence in Polish children aged 0–14 years with regular, sinusoidal fluctuations and a slight levelling off in past few years. It is of concern that are the highest increases in incidence are found in children aged 0–4 years.

Trend of type 1 diabetes incidence in children between 2009 and 2019 in Elazig, Turkey

“…Although a significant increase in trend of T1D in the children younger than 5 years was reported in some studies, the present study failed to show similar increases in incidence rate in this young age group. The greatest increase in incidence was reported in the children aged 10 to 14 years in Norway, Holland, and Spain .…”

Prevalence of diabetes in Poland: a combined analysis of national databases

“…The data on the number of children with Type 1 diabetes for the 2013 year originated from scientific university registries, established in 1989 for four ‘ voivodships ’ (administrative areas), in which 26.7% of the total Polish population of children aged < 14 years lived in 2013 .…”

“…Data from four regional registers (Łódź, Podlasie, Pomorze and Śląsk ‘ voivodships ’) covering ~27% of the population with Type 1 diabetes at age 0–14 years were used in the study. In the analysis, we compared the number of children recorded in registries and the number in the NHF database to assess data coherence in these two sources .…”

“…The cause of Type 1 diabetes (insulin‐dependent diabetes mellitus) is insulin deficiency caused by the self‐destruction of β cells. In recent years, there has been a sharp increase in the incidence of Type 1 diabetes in children, possibly attributable to unidentified environmental factors .…”

Treating with insulin pumps in children under the age of 10 years from diabetes type 1 diagnosis – 3 years follow-up

“…Cukrzyca typu 1 jest jedną z najczęstszych chorób przewlekłych w populacji pediatrycznej [1]. W całej Polsce obserwowany jest stały wzrost zachorowań, największy w grupie dzieci 0-4 lat [2]. Według najnowszych badańzapadalność na tę chorobę u dzieci we wschodniej i centralnej Polsce wzrosła 1,5 razy w trakcie 5-letniej obserwacji [3].…”