Unveiling Temporal Cyclicities in Seismic b-Values and Major Earthquake Events in Japan by Local Singularity Analysis and Wavelet Methods

Abstract

Studying the temporal characteristics of earthquake activity contributes to enhancing earthquake prediction capabilities. The seismic b-value is a key indicator describing the relationship between seismic frequency and magnitude. This study investigates the correlation between the occurrence of major earthquakes and seismic b-values using earthquake activity records in Japan from 1990 to 2023. Local singularity analysis and wavelet analysis of earthquake frequency and b-value time series reveal significant 5-year periodic features in seismic activity in Japan. Furthermore, our research identifies that this periodicity is also prominent in major earthquakes with magnitudes of 7 and above. Additionally, through a detailed analysis of the cross-correlation between seismic b-values and the occurrence time of major earthquakes, we uncover a notable pattern: major earthquakes often occur approximately two years after the peak of seismic b-values. This discovery offers a new perspective on earthquake prediction and may play a crucial role in future earthquake early warning systems.