Untapped work capacity among old persons and their potential contributions to the “silver dividend” in Japan

Matsukura, Rikiya; Shimizutani, Satoshi; Mitsuyama, Nahoko; Lee, Sang Hyop; Ogawa, Naoko

doi:10.1016/j.jeoa.2017.01.002

Cited by 19 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…In view of this recent government initiative, we have attempted to measure the potential work capacity of old workers to alleviate the adverse effects of aging and population decline on Japan's economic growth. To facilitate this numerical exercise by following up on our earlier study (Matsukura et al 2018), we have attempted to quantify the potential work capacity in Japan in terms of health status among those aged 50 and over, by pooling all the observations from the first to the fifth waves (i.e., 2007, 2009, 2011, 2013, and 2015) of the survey called the Japanese Study of Aging and Retirement (JSTAR). 14 In our earlier work (Matsukura et al 2018), we covered only the first three waves of JSTAR.…”

Section: The Potential Work Capacity Of the Elderly And The "Silvermentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To facilitate this numerical exercise by following up on our earlier study (Matsukura et al 2018), we have attempted to quantify the potential work capacity in Japan in terms of health status among those aged 50 and over, by pooling all the observations from the first to the fifth waves (i.e., 2007, 2009, 2011, 2013, and 2015) of the survey called the Japanese Study of Aging and Retirement (JSTAR). 14 In our earlier work (Matsukura et al 2018), we covered only the first three waves of JSTAR. In the present study, we first estimate the relationship between health and employment for men and women aged 50-59 and use the estimated result, along with the actual characteristics of old people (aged 60-79), to simulate the latter's capacity to work based on their health.…”

Section: The Potential Work Capacity Of the Elderly And The "Silvermentioning

confidence: 99%

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Population Aging and the Three Demographic Dividends in Asia

Ogawa

Mansor

Lee

et al. 2021

Asian Development Review

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The present study first examines the trends in age structural shifts in selected Asian economies over the period 1950–2050 and analyzes their impact on economic growth in terms of the first and second demographic dividends computed from the system of National Transfer Accounts. Then, using the National Transfer Accounts, we analyze the effect of the age structural shifts on the pattern of intergenerational transfers in Japan; the Republic of Korea; and Taipei,China. A brief comparison of the results reveals that, in the next few decades, the latter two are likely to follow in Japan's footsteps by increasing public transfers and asset reallocations, and by reducing familial transfers, particularly among older persons. Next, we consider a newly defined demographic dividend, which is generated through the use of the untapped work capacity of healthy older persons and to which we refer as “the silver” or “the third” demographic dividend. By drawing upon microlevel datasets obtained from Japan and Malaysia, we calculate the magnitude of the impact of that dividend on macroeconomic growth in each of the two economies, concluding that while in Japan the expected effect is substantial, in Malaysia it will take several decades before the country can enjoy comparable benefits.

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Section: The Potential Work Capacity Of the Elderly And The "Silvermentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: The Potential Work Capacity Of the Elderly And The "Silvermentioning

confidence: 99%

Population Aging and the Three Demographic Dividends in Asia

Ogawa

Mansor

Lee

et al. 2021

Asian Development Review

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“…These programs are vital to narrow the income gap between seniors and working-age individuals and to reduce elderly poverty rates (Lee and Mason 2011), but population aging and changes in the labor market have important impacts on the sustainability of the programs across the world. Thus, it is important to investigate the future trend in labor force participation to investigate whether it will follow a similar pattern as observed in more developed economies (Boissonneault et al 2020;Matsukura et al 2018;Coile 2018). It is also relevant to perform similar studies considering other characteristics such as educational level, the performance of the labor demand, and the level of informality in the pension program.…”

Section: Key Research Findingsmentioning

confidence: 97%

Social Security Around the World

Queiroz¹,

Matsukura²,

Sambt³

2020

Encyclopedia of Gerontology and Population Aging

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Old-age annuity program; Old-age insurance program; Public pension program; Retirement insurance program Definition Social security is the protection that a society provides to individuals and households to ensure access to health care and to guarantee income security, particularly in cases of old age, unemployment, sickness, invalidity, work injury, maternity, or loss of a breadwinner. Overview Demographic changes, especially population aging, have important impacts on macroeconomic variables, public sector fiscal balance, and other areas such as public pension and public health systems (Reher 2011; Mason and Lee 2007). The rapidly aging population presents one of the greatest public policy challenges around the world and raises concerns about living conditions, social support, and health care provision for older adults, especially in societies where economic development has weakened family support, and a universal welfare system is not yet in place. Population aging brings challenges not only for financing pensions, health, and long-term care, but also for the social security and public sector in general. Overall, all regions of the world, especially Europe, Asia, and Latin America, are facing impacts of demographic changes in their social security programs (Donehower et al. 2016; Rofman and Oliveri 2012; Hammer et al. 2019; see ▶ "Social Security in Latin America"; ▶ "Social Security in the US"; ▶ "Social Security: Long-Term Financing and Reform"). Public pension costs have increased fast in the last few decades, and public health costs are expected to increase rapidly in the next few years. Several countries are undergoing major pension reforms and creating incentives to longer working lives; however, there are very specific challenges for different areas of the world (Reher 2011; Börsch-Supan et al. 2015; Fleury 2017).

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“…A comparative study that translates improved health status of seniors into their capacity to work shows that additional capacity, measured by extended years of working life, among men of ages 55-69, can be as much as 8 years and 5.5 years on average, when comparing that cohort between 1977 and 2010 (Table 3). With such improvements, Matsukara et al (2017) estimated that about 11.1 million workers worth of untapped work capacity exists among people in Japan aged 60 to 79. Healthy life expectancy at birth is defined as the average number of years of full health that a newborn can expect to live, accounting for current age-specific mortality, morbidity, and disability risks (United Nations, 2007).…”

Section: Extended Health Capacity To Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tapping Technology to Maximize the Longevity Dividend in Asia

2018

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Untapped work capacity among old persons and their potential contributions to the “silver dividend” in Japan

Cited by 19 publications

References 10 publications

Population Aging and the Three Demographic Dividends in Asia

Population Aging and the Three Demographic Dividends in Asia

Social Security Around the World

Tapping Technology to Maximize the Longevity Dividend in Asia

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