Unravelling vulnerabilities: mapping key hazards in the Gori Ganga watershed of Kumaon Himalaya for communication, conservation and management

Abstract

The present study investigates the susceptibility of the Kailash Sacred Landscape in Uttarakhand's Pithoragarh district, focusing on regional-level disaster risk assessment in the Gori Ganga watershed as a case study and aims to prepare foundation maps for recurrent disasters like landslides, floods and forest fires. The techniques of remote sensing & geographic information systems, frequency ratio and correlation analytics were employed to perceive hazard-prone areas in the valley, using a variety of geographical, environmental and anthropogenic predictors. The accuracy of the maps generated by the modelling procedure was assessed using validation data and a receiver operating characteristics curve (ROC) with the area under the curve (AUC). The analysis revealed 83.5 km2 was extremely susceptible to flood incidents, 133.1 km2 was susceptible to landslides and 147 km2 was severely vulnerable to wildfires. The determined area under the curve value for flood susceptibility was 88.6%, followed by landslides at 89.5% and wildfires at 90.9%, showing that the model performed exceptionally well. The findings reveal that precipitation, lithology and elevation were the most significant variables in inducing floods. Precipitation, profile curvature, elevation and distance to thrust are the primary determinants of landslides, while closeness to the road and settlements, as well as vegetation indices, were significant predictors of fire events. The Lower Kumaon Himalayan valley region was recognized as highly vulnerable to all three major catastrophes. This study identifies potentially hazardous regions for adaptive sustainable conservation activities, involving local communities in decision-making to mitigate impacts and aid in preventing and managing impending landscape-level threats.