Unravelling the influence of human behaviour on reducing casualties during flood evacuation

Vicario, Sara Alonso; Mazzoleni, Maurizio; Bhamidipati, Srirama; Gharesifard, Mohammad; Ridolfi, Elena; Pandolfo, Claudia; Alfonso, Leonardo

doi:10.1080/02626667.2020.1810254

Cited by 29 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 46 publications

(56 reference statements)

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“…First, the model does not consider different social groups because spatially distributed characteristics of heterogeneous human societies are not included. Agent-based models, which aim to simulate the role of individual and collective behavior (Wens et al 2019, Alonso Vicario et al 2020, Michaelis et al 2020) in relation to floods and droughts, can be used in future studies to capture social heterogeneity. In our model, water-management strategies are considered as an external model control constant in time because they are aimed at unravelling and quantifying the human-water phenomena under specific adaptation actions.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Water management, hydrological extremes, and society: modeling interactions and phenomena

Mazzoleni¹,

Odongo²,

Mondino³

et al. 2021

E&S

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We present a system-dynamics model to simulate the interplay between water management, hydrological extremes (droughts and floods), and society. We illustrate the potential and limitations of the model with an example application to the Brisbane river basin (Australia). In particular, we test its capability to explain various phenomena that have been empirically observed, including the levee paradox, (mal)adaptation, and supply-demand cycles. To illustrate, we consider four water-management strategies: no actions, in which no measures are adopted to mitigate droughts and floods; fighting floods, in which a levee system is built and raised to cope with flooding; water conservation, in which demand management is implemented to cope with drought; and water exploitation, in which the water supply is increased to cope with drought. Our findings show that changes in flood and drought awareness can help contribute to the emergence of multiple phenomena. Moreover, the outcomes from the proposed coupled-modeling framework indicate that water-management strategies aimed at specific hydrological extremes can in turn shape the severity of opposite natural hazards. Given its explanatory value, the model can contribute to a better interpretation of changes in drought and flood risk and the role of alternative water-management strategies.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Water management, hydrological extremes, and society: modeling interactions and phenomena

Mazzoleni¹,

Odongo²,

Mondino³

et al. 2021

E&S

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show abstract

“…Ao longo das simulações, cada agente pode ser inspecionado, e parâmetros podem ser modificados. GAMA vêm sendo utilizada para modelar e simular sistemas multiagente no contexto de diferentes tipos de problemas (Gaudou et al, 2014;Farias et al, 2020;Vicario et al, 2020; Mariano e Alves, 2020). A quantidade inicial de água no ambiente foi definida como um volume de água (vol_water) com valor 3000 (representando 3000 × 10 7 L).…”

Section: áRea De Estudounclassified

Uso De Sistema Multiagente Para Análise Da Mudança No Uso Do Solo Em Uma Bacia Hidrográfica Do Brasil

Leitzke¹,

Adamatti²

2023

Rev. Contemp.

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As bacias hidrográficas possuem grande importância para a sociedade. Entretanto, a má gestão dessas regiões pode trazer grandes impactos ambientais. Este estudo visa apresentar uma proposta de Sistema Multiagente para a análise das consequências da mudança no uso do solo no sistema hídrico. Para isso, escolheu-se a Bacia Hidrográfica do Arroio Fragata (BHAF), localizada no sul do Brasil. A bacia foi considerada como ambiente do sistema, sendo esse discretizado em células quadradas regulares. Os agentes modificam o uso do solo em cada célula do ambiente. E em cada ciclo, as mudanças no uso do solo, e o volume de água são atualizados. Os resultados indicam as consequências no ambiente, e na quantidade de água disponível em cada ciclo.

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“…3.3). Direct validation of agent-based models is a grand challenge as such models are aimed to study non-observable scenarios, where there are uncertainties associated with the emergent nature of behaviours and where validation datasets of such type are not available (An et al, 2020;Zhuo and Han, 2020;Aerts, 2020). One alternative approach is a component-wise validation (Bert et al, 2014).…”

Section: Evaluation Of the Newly Added Characteristics And Rulesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Flood–pedestrian simulator for modelling human response dynamics during flood-induced evacuation: Hillsborough stadium case study

Shirvani

Kesserwani

2021

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. The flood–pedestrian simulator uses a parallel approach to couple a hydrodynamic model to a pedestrian model in a single agent-based modelling (ABM) framework on graphics processing units (GPU), allowing dynamic exchange and processing of multiple-agent information across the two models. The simulator is enhanced with more realistic human body characteristics and in-model behavioural rules. The new features are implemented in the pedestrian model to factor in age- and gender-related walking speeds for the pedestrians in dry zones around the floodwater and to include a maximum excitement condition. It is also adapted to use age-related moving speeds for pedestrians inside the floodwater, with either a walking condition or a running condition. The walking and running conditions are applicable without and with an existing two-way interaction condition that considers the effects of pedestrian congestion on the floodwater spreading. A new autonomous change of direction condition is proposed to make pedestrian agents autonomous in wayfinding decisions driven by their individual perceptions of the flood risk or the dominant choice made by the others. The relevance of the newly added characteristics and rules is demonstrated by applying the augmented simulator to reproduce a synthetic test case of a flood evacuation in a shopping centre, to then contrast its outcomes against the version of the simulator that does not consider age and gender in the agent characteristics. The enhanced simulator is demonstrated for a real-world case study of a mass evacuation from the Hillsborough football stadium, showing usefulness for flood emergency evacuation planning in outdoor spaces where destination choice and individual risk perception have great influence on the simulation outcomes.

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Unravelling the influence of human behaviour on reducing casualties during flood evacuation

Cited by 29 publications

References 46 publications

Water management, hydrological extremes, and society: modeling interactions and phenomena

Water management, hydrological extremes, and society: modeling interactions and phenomena

Uso De Sistema Multiagente Para Análise Da Mudança No Uso Do Solo Em Uma Bacia Hidrográfica Do Brasil

Flood–pedestrian simulator for modelling human response dynamics during flood-induced evacuation: Hillsborough stadium case study

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