Unravelling Mongolia's Extreme Winter Disaster of 2010

Abstract

The 2010 extreme winter disaster (dzud) in Mongolia has lead to great livestock mortality (around 20 per cent of the national herd), the loss of pastoral livelihoods and rural displacement and affected 28 per cent of the country's population. Whilst environmental conditions were the immediate cause, contributory factors include a changing climate, current herding practices and weak governance. The severity of the event points out herding vulnerability, a lack of dzud preparedness and climate's disruptive impact on steppe pastoralism. This article examines the intertwined natural and human processes that shaped the dzud and the implications for pastoralism in Mongolia. Learning from the 2010 event is critical to reduce disaster risk and hazard impact on steppe livelihoods.

Investigating the presumed causal links between drought and dzud in Mongolia

“…For instance, in Mongolia, drought and dzud (severe winter conditions) create the greatest threats to animal mortality and herder well-being (IPCC 2012;Fernandez-Gimenez et al 2012;Shinoda 2012). The destructive national impact of dzud events reached crisis proportions in 1999-2001; the 2009-2010 disaster killed *25% of the national herd, led to significant displacement as 3% of the population lost livelihoods and reduced GDP by -4.4% (Batima et al 2005;Sternberg 2010) whilst 1.1 million animals died in the 2015-2016 event (UN 2016). Numerous academic, government, international NGO publications and news reports highlight how concurrent or sequential natural hazards threaten society by stressing causality between drought and dzud that creates significant disasters (IPCC 2012;UNOCHA 2010).…”

Effect of Hypothermia and Droughts on Livestock Mortality in Southern and Eastern Mongolia

“…Shabb et al (2013) concluded that dzuds, droughts, diseases, pastures degradation are some of the main constraints which significantly affect livestock husbandry. Dzuds and droughts leads to excessive livestock mortality (Middleton and Sternberg, 2013;Sternberg, 2010;Tachiiri et al, 2008;Chogsom, 1964;Natsagdorj and Dulamsuren, 2001 (Middleton et al, 2015;Vernooy., 2011). During 2000 dzud, 9% of total livestock population mortality occurs in Mongolia (Batjargal, 2001).…”

Herders and hazards: covariate dzud risk and the cost of risk management strategies in a Mongolian subdistrict

“…Research has not fully explained how herders themselves are members of local administrative units and the consequences of these political memberships for land tenure and mobility practices. A review of the recent literature indicates that the state is represented as "absent" and "insufficient" (Vindskog 2014, p. 886) in responding to dzud, or ineffective due to loss of funding and capacity since the transition to a market economy (Sternberg 2010). There is limited research on the activities of soum administration, and many studies pass over the roles of bag governors, veterinarians or environmental officers in reference to natural hazards.…”

“…Winter temperature or drought conditions alone could not explain the disastrous effects of the 2000 dzud, and social factors were seen to play a role in the extent of disaster. Similarly, a failure of governance and disaster management has been seen to play a role in the severe livestock mortality of the 2010 dzud (Sternberg 2010).…”