Unpacking future climate extremes and their sectoral implications in western Nepal

Abstract

Existing climate projections and impact assessments in Nepal only consider a limited number of generic climate indices such as means. Few studies have explored climate extremes and their sectoral implications. This study evaluates future scenarios of extreme climate indices from the list of the Expert Team on Sector-specific Climate Indices (ET-SCI) and their sectoral implications in the Karnali Basin in western Nepal. First, future projections of 26 climate indices relevant to six climate-sensitive sectors in Karnali are made for the near (2021–2045), mid (2046–2070), and far (2071–2095) future for low- and high-emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively) using bias-corrected ensembles of 19 regional climate models from the COordinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment for South Asia (CORDEX-SA). Second, a qualitative analysis based on expert interviews and a literature review on the impact of the projected climate extremes on the climate-sensitive sectors is undertaken. Both the temperature and precipitation patterns are projected to deviate significantly from the historical reference already from the near future with increased occurrences of extreme events. Winter in the highlands is expected to become warmer and dryer. The hot and wet tropical summer in the lowlands will become hotter with longer warm spells and fewer cold days. Low-intensity precipitation events will decline, but the magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation events will increase. The compounding effects of the increase in extreme temperature and precipitation events will have largely negative implications for the six climate-sensitive sectors considered here.

Understanding the Role of Climate Change in Disaster Mortality: Empirical Evidence from the Global South

“…With additional global warming, extreme precipitation events will inevitably become more frequent and intense worldwide 8 . In Nepal, extreme precipitation events are projected to rise, with the strongest rise being in high emission scenarios [38][39][40] . For example, the number of extremely wet days is projected to increase by 28% in 2016-2045 and by 60% in 2036-2065 in the high emission scenario (RCP8.5) compared to the 1981-2010 period 38 .…”

Karnali Tourism: Natural Attractions

“…Karnali is also a biodiversity hotspot, with approximately 14% of the area under protection, and is comprised of four national parks, one wildlife reserve, one hunting reserve, two buffer zones, and three Ramsar sites. Overall, Karnali remains largely rural, with sparse communities relying heavily on nature-based livelihoods, rich biodiversity and natural resources, and untapped hydropower potential spread throughout the basin (Chapagain, Dhaubanjar, & Bharati, 2021). Thus Karnali is naturally beautiful.…”

“…Projected warming-induced snow cover loss and an uncertain climate could negatively affect mountain tourism. Temperature increases could also increase costs for tourism entrepreneurs because they will need to invest more in cooling systems in lowland areas (Chapagain, Dhaubanjar, & Bharati, 2021). Thus tourism development must go coincide with climate change mitigations.…”

Cultural Tourism: A Review of Karnali

“…It is important to note that this lake also has many names, which reflect different spiritual orientations and meanings. Rakshastal, or "Demon Lake" is merely the Sanskrit name given to the lake by pilgrims of the Hindu faith, but the local Tibetan name for the lake is Langak Sertso (gold lake) (Chapagain, Dhaubanjar, & Bharati, 2021). Practitioners of the ancient Tibetan religion of Bon refer to the lake as Muley Tsho (silver lake) and believe that the Dulla Gyalmo -a manifestation of the Bon Queen of the Universe and consort to the great tutelary deity Walchen Gekho, who reside in Mount Kailash -lives in the waters depths.…”

“…The indigenous communities rely on natural springs as their primary source of water for drinking and irrigation and are highly vulnerable to changes in precipitation. The southern lowlands are prone to disasters, such as floods and droughts, and the northern highlands experience landslides and flash floods (Chapagain, Dhaubanjar, & Bharati, 2021). (Study, 2020) The only one source of revolutionary transformation of Karnali is its tremendous natural and cultural attractions.…”