Unknowns, Black Swans, and Bounded Rationality in Public Organizations

Feduzi, Alberto; Runde, Jochen; Schwarz, Gary

doi:10.1111/puar.13522

Cited by 6 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…Third, using EW in the way we have proposed may help reduce what is sometimes called ‘organisational myopia’ (Catino, 2013; Feduzi, Runde, & Schwarz, 2022). The COVID‐19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine conflict are recent examples of developments that have dramatically affected the fortunes of organisations but that were typically not even seen as possibilities by most strategy makers prior to their occurrence.…”

Section: On the Practicalities And Rationale For Using Ew In Scenario...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Borrowing from Keynes' A Treatise on Probability: A non‐probabilistic measure of uncertainty for scenario planning

Derbyshire

Feduzi

Runde

2022

European Management Review

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Scenario planning is a tool used to formulate contingent but potentially impactful futures to aid strategic decision-making. A crucial element of many versions of scenario planning is an assessment of levels of uncertainty about the broad drivers of change within the system under consideration. Despite the importance of this element, the scenario planning literature is largely silent on the appropriate conception of uncertainty to use, exactly what it attaches to and how it might be measured. This paper seeks to fill this gap by advancing a non-probabilistic measure of uncertainty based on the concept of evidential weight drawn from the economist John Maynard Keynes' 1921 A Treatise on Probability.

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Section: On the Practicalities And Rationale For Using Ew In Scenario...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Borrowing from Keynes' A Treatise on Probability: A non‐probabilistic measure of uncertainty for scenario planning

Derbyshire

Feduzi

Runde

2022

European Management Review

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“…Contemporary administrators act with significant discretion and their political masters must decide how to structure this discretion (West, 1984) or, to use the more recent language of behavioural public administration, politicians shape the “choice architecture” of administrators (Battaglio et al , 2019). In a systematic review of behavioural public administration research, Battaglio et al (2019: 314) call for greater study of the intentional manipulation of choice architecture as “viable strategies […] to alter behaviour for the better.” Previous studies (Bellé et al , 2018; Hong, 2020) have explored whether policies have non-rational influences on behaviours or how policies can allow for non-rational influences (Feduzi et al , 2022) but not whether such non-rational influences were intended and designed by policymakers.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…to alter behaviour for the better." Previous studies (Bell e et al, 2018;Hong, 2020) have explored whether policies have non-rational influences on behaviours or how policies can allow for non-rational influences (Feduzi et al, 2022) but not whether such non-rational influences were intended and designed by policymakers.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

(Non) rationality and choice architecture: a behavioural approach to public administrative discretion in New Zealand

Scott

Merton

2023

IJOA

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Purpose A central question of public administration is how political principals secure the cooperation of administrators within organisational frames and contexts; increasingly, rational influences are being considered alongside bounded rationality and non-rational influences. This paper aims to explore the intent of New Zealand’s Public Service Act 2020 in managing administrative behaviour. Design/methodology/approach The methodology is primarily ethnographic, combining emic and etic perspectives. A mixed-methods approach comprises participant observer field notes and meeting documentation, substantiated by official documents; documents were analysed thematically and triangulated with other data sources. Findings The Public Service Act introduces new bounds on administrative behaviour. The stated rationale for these changes reveals an attempt to set limits on the principal–agent relationship between politicians and administrators and causes predictable deviations from rational behaviour by cultivating public service motivation and a unified public service identity. Research limitations/implications As the legislation in question was only passed in 2020, it is too early to definitively assess the ultimate impact of legislation on administrative behaviour. This case study demonstrates that behavioural approaches to public administration are being applied intentionally by governments. The choice architecture created in the case study blends rational, bounded, and non-rational influences. Together, this produces a bricolage of semi-relevant theories from other disciplines, especially psychology, to explain administrative behaviour. Further refinement is needed to develop a cohesive and comprehensive theory of administrative behaviour that can account for contemporary practice. Practical implications Administrators act as agents of political principals, within ethical and rules-based limitations and influenced by public service motivation and social identity. Shifting from implicit to explicit choice architecture does not negate possible tensions between bounds and can signal them more explicitly. Shared symbols are sometimes intended to influence identity and therefore adherence to behavioural norms. Originality/value This paper explores the manipulation of choice architecture as a viable strategy for altering behaviour for the better and, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, is the first known instance of choice architecture being “legislated in” rather than merely “showing through”. This study illustrates the blending of rational, boundedly rational and non-rational factors into a choice architecture for public administrators that help mediate the biases and challenges of principal–agent relationships (which form a cascade in New Zealand’s public administration system).

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“…According to Feduzi et al, Black Swans refer to incidents which are formerly unimagined by the organization, or those formerly imagined but deemed impossible. Also, they might be sufficiently unlikely to dismiss as impossible, or completely lost by the organization [1].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Changes in the Business Strategies and Models of the Cross Border E-Commerce Company under the Black Swan

Liu¹

2023

BCPBM

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Due to the sudden hit of the Black Swan (COVID-19 pandemic), the rise in production cost had impacted the profits earned by the industry, and so the cross-border e-commerce industry had undergone significant changes during these years. In order to overcome the problems, the Cross Border E-Commerce companies tend to implement new business strategies and models to help with its recovery and development. This paper follows the research method of case study, which means it will adopt a specific example of a Cross Border E-Commerce company and analyze its changes in business strategies and models under the pandemic. The result has shown that the adjustment of the business pattern (especially focusing on online office) tend to help the industry overcome the negative impacts caused by the outbreak and develop in a relatively fast and steady rate. The companies are able to learn from company Z’s approach to invest in R&D, optimize the supply chain, adopt the software management system and pay more attention to the cultivation of brand.

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Unknowns, Black Swans, and Bounded Rationality in Public Organizations

Cited by 6 publications

References 34 publications

Borrowing from Keynes' A Treatise on Probability: A non‐probabilistic measure of uncertainty for scenario planning

Borrowing from Keynes' A Treatise on Probability: A non‐probabilistic measure of uncertainty for scenario planning

(Non) rationality and choice architecture: a behavioural approach to public administrative discretion in New Zealand

The Changes in the Business Strategies and Models of the Cross Border E-Commerce Company under the Black Swan

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