United States drought of 2007: historical perspectives

Abstract

The impacts of the United States drought of 2007 to both society and ecosystems were substantive and included multi-billion dollar agricultural losses and the second worst wildfire season on record. The purpose of this paper is to place the 2007 drought in historical perspective relative to the climate record from 1895-2007 to increase our understanding of this hazard and contribute to improvements of drought mitigation plans. We compared the 2007 drought historically against the climatic record (1895-2007) using the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). We then examined the temporal progression of the 2007 drought and placed the peak month of drought severity (November) in historical perspective using rankings of severity and statistical recurrence intervals. Moreover, we examined the climatic factors (e.g. geopotential height anomalies) that contributed to both abnormally dry and wet conditions recorded within the continental United States. While there were regions that experienced the worst drought on record both annually and in November during the calendar year 2007, this year was not as severe as other notable drought years. November 2007 ties (with 5 other years) for the 12th worst on record in terms of the number of climatic divisions experiencing the worst November drought. Statistically, drought/wetness conditions in November 2007 were not exceptionally extreme, with almost all of the calculated statistical recurrence intervals being much less than the 113 year period of record. KEY WORDS: PDSI · Historical rank · Recurrence interval · Media · Geopotential height · Anomalies Resale or republication not permitted without written consent of the publisherClim Res 38: [95][96][97][98][99][100][101][102][103][104] 2009 tering lawns, washing automobiles, and other noncritical uses of water (CBS News; www.cbsnews. com/stories/2007/05/29/national/main2861151.shtml? source=search_story). Further, drought conditions helped produce one of the worst wildfire seasons on record, with 3.8 × 10 6 ha burned nationwide in 2007, which is the second largest amount in recorded history (NOAA 2007a). Wahlquist (2003) found that media coverage of drought influences public perceptions and community mitigation plans. She argues that most of the public receives information about drought conditions through the media; thus, the way the media reports on a current drought will influence how the public prepares for future droughts.Drought occurs throughout the entire United States and can potentially be severe anywhere (Cook et al. 1999). Research on drought in the United States is diverse and includes examinations of intensity, frequency, causes, and spatial and temporal patterns (Oglesby & Erickson III 1989, Soulé 1990, Knapp et al. 2002, Hoerling & Kumar 2003, Salas et al. 2005. When severe, drought is a natural hazard that can cause billions of dollars in damages (Wilhite 2000). Continued research on the causes and patterns of drought will increase our understanding of this hazard and contribute to improvements of dr...

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