Unique Vulnerability of the New York–New Jersey Metropolitan Area to Hurricane Destruction

Coch, Nicholas K.

doi:10.2112/jcoastres-d-13-00183.1

Cited by 14 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…The primary sources of data were from NOAA meteorological data that were then crosschecked with New York Times (NYT) articles (described in the next sections) to examine impacts; Weather 2000 (http://www. weather2000.com/ retrieved on the 6th of June 2017) for event data; the BNYC's risk landscape: a guide to hazard mitigation of 2014^; the BNew York City Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan of March 2009^; and data provided in articles by Coch (2015) and Solecki (2012) for additional event and impact data. Despite our efforts to be comprehensive, we note that the total of 267 events likely remain an underestimation of the number of impactful and disastrous events that affected NYC in the past 140 years.…”

Section: Comprehensive Databasementioning

confidence: 99%

Changing urban risk: 140 years of climatic hazards in New York City

Depietri

McPhearson

2018

Climatic Change

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Weather-related disasters are on the rise. The causes, whether driven by climate change or changes in exposure and vulnerability of social-ecological-technological systems are still uncertain. Here, we address this issue with an in-depth study of the variability in climate-related extreme events which have impacted New York City (NYC) over the past 140 years. NYC has not historically been viewed as a particularly hazard prone region. However, this perspective is changing, particularly after the disastrous consequences of Hurricane Sandy (2012). We constructed a systematic database of impactful climatic events and assessed multi-sector impacts. Results indicate that hazards have systematically affected the city, with heat waves as the deadliest events and hurricanes as the costliest. We analyzed climatic hazard trends focusing on heat waves and flooding only, since data for these events are available over the full-time frame of the study. We then examined impacts of the most severe of these two hazards using data from The New York Times. Our analyses show that flooding and heat wave extreme events have regularly affected the city over its history with a trend toward increasing mean number of hazards per decade. We highlight a trend of decreased mortality due to heat waves over time and increase in the impacts of heavy precipitation, primarily related to the expansion of the transportation system and potentially to climate change over this time period. We suggest that, especially in urban areas of developed countries such as NYC, changes in built up infrastructure may be the primary drivers of risk to natural hazards.Climatic Change

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Section: Comprehensive Databasementioning

confidence: 99%

Changing urban risk: 140 years of climatic hazards in New York City

Depietri

McPhearson

2018

Climatic Change

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“…As reported in Tanski (2007) and Coch (2015), Long Island's Atlantic shoreline in New York is occupied by a series of dynamic barrier islands, some heavily developed while some are natural resource areas. After the 1938 hurricane, coastal engineering structures including groins, sea walls and jetties were viewed as means to increase beach width to minimise storm damage and to stabilise storm-cut inlets on Long Island (Coch, 2015;US Beach Erosion Board, 1946). Jetties were thus built to stabilise inlets such as Shinnecock Inlet in Southampton (Plate 5.2) and others.…”

Section: New Challengesmentioning

confidence: 81%

Groins or Not: Some environmental challenges to urban development on a Lagos coastal barrier island of Lekki Peninsula

Obiefuna

Omojola²,

Adeaga³

et al. 2017

JCBM

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Worldwide, barrier islands which protect mainland areas are usually sedimentary, dynamic and in great demand for urban development. Intense development on them negates their dynamics leading to risks which necessitate protective measures such as groins which tend to aggravate the problem. Suburban Lekki Peninsula on the south of Lagos metropolis is a large, long barrier island disposed largely to unplanned, accelerated growth since the inception of Lekki Scheme 1 in 1980, all without any consideration of its physical dynamics. This study therefore assessed and evaluated some risks confronting development from the dynamics of the Peninsula with the goal of demonstrating the use of low - budget online data for analysis of coastal hazards and risks. The methodology entails the integration of remote sensing, GIS techniques to assess its characteristics and evaluate risks to development from some hazards inherent in island's physical processes as a typical barrier island on the Lagos coastline. Findings reveal that the area which was 0.5% built up in 1984 had grown to about 18% in 2014 with Eti-Osa LGA as the most developed at 68.4%. Results further confirm the Peninsula as narrow in a few sections and generally low-lying with 37% between 0.5 - 3m while 63% is between 3 - 5m above m.s.l. Eti-Osa LGA is the most low -lying of the three councils in the area with 0.5 - 3m height dominant. Medium to maximum rates of beach erosion occurs mainly in Eti-Osa LGA at about 22.75m/yr around Kuramo Waters, decreasing to 5.5m/yr around Goshen Estate. Projections on coastal erosion on the most erosive area in Eti-Osa LGA from 2013 reveal potential socio-economic impacts on road infrastructure and buildings as ranging from a minimum of N1.16billion to N139.42billion over the next 30 years at present level of development and values. The study concludes that the greatest threat and risk from barrier island processes assessed presently are mainly in Eti-Osa LGA with the old Maroko and Kuramo Waters as the epicenter. Among the recommendations toward continued occupation of the Peninsula are the base flood elevation (BFE) and design flood elevation (DFE) to enhance the resilience of future developments. Comparative observations from literature on effect of groins on down drift areas from the US were further dwelt on.

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“…There is confusion in both the scientific literature and the popular press as to whether the Sandy event should be referred to as Superstorm Sandy or Hurricane Sandy. Coch (2015) argues that while the surge generated by Hurricane Sandy was not a unique event, "The unique confluences of meteorological and astronomical factors in Sandy were very rare and unlikely to be repeated for a very long time." Because Sandy had hurricane force winds for much of its duration and gusts of hurricane force winds were briefly recorded in the New York Metropolitan area, here the event is referred to as Hurricane Sandy following the lead of Coch (2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Coch (2015) argues that while the surge generated by Hurricane Sandy was not a unique event, "The unique confluences of meteorological and astronomical factors in Sandy were very rare and unlikely to be repeated for a very long time." Because Sandy had hurricane force winds for much of its duration and gusts of hurricane force winds were briefly recorded in the New York Metropolitan area, here the event is referred to as Hurricane Sandy following the lead of Coch (2015). The important observation is that while Sandy was a rare meteorological event, tropical and extratropical storms similar to Sandy have occurred frequently since the 1600s, on average every 12 years (Benimoff, Fritz, and Kress, 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The track angle and landfall location put the northeastern quadrant of the hurricane in the New York Metropolitan area, where the storm's forward speed and cyclonic surface wind speed are additive, usually producing the greatest storm surge. In addition, the coast in the New York Metropolitan area forms a right angle, where Raritan Bay meets the New Jersey Shore to the south and meets Long Island to the north (Coch, 1999(Coch, , 2012(Coch, , 2014(Coch, , 2015Figure 1). This juncture acts effectively as a funnel, forcing the surge into Raritan Bay and flooding the coastline of Staten Island.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modeling and Simulation of Storm Surge on Staten Island to Understand Inundation Mitigation Strategies

Kress

Benimoff

Fritz

et al. 2016

Journal of Coastal Research

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Hurricane Sandy made landfall on October 29, 2012, near Brigantine, New Jersey, and had a transformative impact on Staten Island and the New York Metropolitan area. Of the 43 New York City fatalities, 23 occurred on Staten Island. The borough, with a population of approximately 500,000, experienced some of the most devastating impacts of the storm. Since Hurricane Sandy, protective dunes have been constructed on the southeast shore of Staten Island. ADCIRC+SWAN model simulations run on The City University of New York's Cray XE6M, housed at the College of Staten Island, using updated topographic data show that the coast of Staten Island is still susceptible to tidal surge similar to those generated by Hurricane Sandy. Sandy hindcast simulations of storm surges focusing on Staten Island are in good agreement with observed storm tide measurements. Model results calculated from fine-scaled and coarsescaled computational grids demonstrate that finer grids better resolve small differences in the topography of critical hydraulic control structures, which affect storm surge inundation levels. The storm surge simulations, based on poststorm topography obtained from high-resolution lidar, provide much-needed information to understand Staten Island's changing vulnerability to storm surge inundation. The results of fine-scale storm surge simulations can be used to inform efforts to improve resiliency to future storms. For example, protective barriers contain planned gaps in the dunes to provide for beach access that may inadvertently increase the vulnerability of the area.

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Unique Vulnerability of the New York–New Jersey Metropolitan Area to Hurricane Destruction

Cited by 14 publications

References 13 publications

Changing urban risk: 140 years of climatic hazards in New York City

Changing urban risk: 140 years of climatic hazards in New York City

Groins or Not: Some environmental challenges to urban development on a Lagos coastal barrier island of Lekki Peninsula

Modeling and Simulation of Storm Surge on Staten Island to Understand Inundation Mitigation Strategies

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