Unintended Consequences: Unknowable and Unavoidable, or Knowable and Unforgivable?

Abstract

Recognizing that there are multiple environmental limits within which humanity can safely operate, it is essential that potential negative outcomes of seemingly positive actions are accounted for. This alertness to unintended consequences underscores the importance of so called “nexus” research, which recognizes the integrated and interactive nature of water, energy and food systems, and aims to understand the broader implications of developments in any one of these systems. This article presents a novel framework for categorizing such detrimental unintended consequences, based upon how much is known about the system in question and the scope for avoiding any such unintended consequences. The framework comprises four categories (Knowable and Avoidable; Knowable and Unavoidable; Unknowable and Avoidable, and Unknowable and Unavoidable). The categories are explored with reference to examples in both the water-energy-food nexus and planetary boundary frameworks. The examples highlight the potential for the unexpected to happen and explore dynamic nature of the situations that give rise to the unexpected. The article concludes with guidance on how the framework can be used to increase confidence that best efforts have been made to navigate our way toward secure and sustainable water, energy and food systems, avoiding and/or managing unintended consequences along the way.

Toward a Brighter Future: Enhanced Sustainable Methods for Preventing Algal Blooms and Improving Water Quality

“…Recovering and removing flocculated or settled organic matter from water is crucial to prevent further ecological harm and to protect biodiversity [100,184]. Sustainable approaches to managing water quality, public health, and ecosystem health are critical, with a strong emphasis on evaluating potential impacts to avoid undesirable outcomes that could harm ecosystems and human activities [190][191][192][193].…”

Targeted and Tangential Effects—A Novel Framework for Energy Research and Practitioners

“…Using two case studies (planetary boundaries framework and water-energy-food nexus), the framework provides five recommendations on how it can be used, including broad and encompassing assessments, iteration, pragmatism, consensus building, and a learning mindset. It also recognizes that not all unintended consequences can be identified and that changes to the tools and methods being currently applied need to change or be updated [41].…”

“…With that being noted, and as highlighted earlier in the paper, the ability to predict future impacts is inherently uncertain and will always change and evolve [41]. As a consequence, the intention of this framework is to be continually used and revised to take in the latest directions and forecasts-but also to be adaptable and flexible to evolve as the sector evolves.…”

Minimizing Unintended Consequences of Water Resources Decisions

“…While we cannot anticipate every unintended consequence, we can expand the search for potential ones and deliberately assess risks. Suckling et al (2021) proposed classifying unintended consequences along two dimensions-whether they are knowable and whether they are avoidable. This simple but powerful exercise can lead to new insights and solutions.…”