Uninformed voters with (im)precise expectations: Explaining political budget cycle puzzles

Abstract

Governments try to improve re-election chances by using fiscal instruments; they can shift voters' expectations of government competence because some voters are impaired by uninformedness. We argue that uninformed voters may also be impaired in another way which has not been considered in the literature, namely that uninformed voters are uncertain about the precision of that expected competence. Analytically, we show that political budget cycles (PBCs) are only produced when we have many uninformed voters and their expected competence of the government is fairly uncertain; or with few uninformed voters and certain expectations. This could explain two empirical puzzles on why we sometimes find and sometimes not (i) PBCs in developed and democratic countries with strong institutions, and (ii) that press freedom exacerbates PBCs. In a panel of 70 countries we find empirical support for these findings. Results are robust to alternative specifications and explanations like fiscal rules, corruption and expected downturns.

The impact of budget transparency on tax revenue forecasts: Evidence from Croatian local government units

“…Third-generation models of PBCs include models based on the limited rationality of voters and have been proposed by scholars such as Bohn (2018), Bohn & Veiga (2021) and Crombach & Bohn (2022). The previous two generations include models based on information asymmetry (Rogoff, 1990;Rogoff & Sibert, 1988) and a model based on moral hazard (Shi & Svensson, 2006).…”

Licencia para ejercer el derecho a votar y regulación de la información ofrecida por los medios

“…Se ha señalado que el populismo podría considerarse más que una causa de insatisfacción con la democracia una consecuencia de esta (Berman, 2019;Kriesi, 2020), aunque es posible que haya una relación bidireccional, ya que se ha propuesto, la insatisfacción con el régimen político como causa del voto populista (Stockemer, Lentz & Mayer, 2018). Diferentes autores Bohn, (2018;; Crombach & Bohn, (2022); Veiga, Veiga & Morozumi, (2017), han señalado que una de las principales causas de la subida de los populismos es la falta de información. Hay evidencias sobre el vínculo entre populismo y comunicación emocional (Widmann, 2021).…”