Unexpected events during survey design and trust in the police: a systematic review

Abstract

Objectives The current review has two aims: (1) to synthesize the impact of unexpected events on trust in police across different contexts and types of events, and (2) to evaluate the methodological characteristics of each study with attention to the assumptions for causal inference. Methods We conducted a pre-registered narrative systematic review on 12 independent studies. Results Studies closely adhering to causal inference assumption checks (i.e., excludability and ignorability) find significant changes in trust in police following incidents of police (non) violence and protest. Still, excludability is assessed and addressed less rigorously than ignorability in the included studies. Conclusion Regarding the procedural justice framework, this provides some causal evidence that vicarious (positive and negative) experiences can shape short-term assessments of public trust in police. We furthermore highlight issues related to design and power, statistical conclusion validity, and the evaluation of assumptions to detect threats to internal validity.

Measuring everyday experiences with the police: An experience sampling pilot study

“…However, it is important to note that these effects are "momentary," as lagged experiences were not significantly associated with attitudes. While existing research suggests that there is a strong, possibly causal, association between experiences and attitudes (Mazerolle, Antrobus, et al, 2013;Nägel & Nivette, 2022;Sahin et al, 2017), there is relatively less research on how long these effects last. Studies that have evaluated the "indirect" effects of exposure to police violence (e.g.…”

Examining the effects of the killing of George Floyd by police in the United States on attitudes of Black Londoners: A replication

“…Furthermore, recent literature on quasi-experimental designs such as UESD have emphasized the importance of checking all relevant assumptions, establishing adequate power, and evaluating the robustness of results across different model specifications (e.g. RDD and OLS, see Muñoz et al, 2020;Nägel & Nivette, 2022). For these reasons, the close evaluation of assumptions, specifications, and different case studies is necessary to determine to what extent the effect detected after an incident is robust and generalizable.…”

“…Previous research has shown that high-profile incidents of police misconduct can reduce trust and confidence in the police among the wider public (Kochel, 2019;Nägel & Lutter, 2021;Reny & Newman, 2021). However, the effects of these 'vicarious' experiences can be heterogeneous and even null depending on the institutional and societal context, subpopulation, and specific circumstances of the event (Muñoz et al, 2020;Nägel & Nivette, 2022). There is relatively little research on to what extent incidents of police violence in one country resonate across the globe, influencing individual attitudes towards local police.…”

“…the death of George Floyd in 2020) on attitudes towards the police using the same data from the MOPAC Public Attitude Survey in London. In addition, we evaluate the robustness and reliability of results by assessing the ignorability and excludability assumptions, as well as alternative design strategies and specifications, as recommended in the UESD literature (Muñoz et al, 2020;Nägel & Nivette, 2022). In doing so, we plan to implement the full range of 'good-practice-recommendations' discussed in the literature, thus providing a comprehensive and rigorous understanding of the hypothesized effect.…”

“…Typically, these studies focus on direct or interpersonal interactions between an individual and a police officer. However, there is growing evidence to suggest that indirect or 'vicarious' interactions with police, such as through (social) media, can have substantive effects on attitudes towards the police (Choi, 2021;Graziano, 2019;Graziano et al, 2010;Intravia et al, 2020;Nägel & Nivette, 2022;Weitzer, 2002). In addition, these effects can be relatively greater among ethnic minority compared to majority groups, as minority group members are more likely to experience negative police contact and mistreatment (Braga et al, 2019).…”