Unemployment and Consumption

Malley, Jim; Moutos, Thomas

doi:10.1093/oxfordjournals.oep.a028586

Cited by 34 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…This is confirmed by Malley and Moutos (1996), who claim that unemployment is a valuable measure of income uncertainty. They also state that an increase in income uncertainty induces more saving (less consumption) due to precautionary motives.…”

Section: Dr Ri IV Ve Er Rs S O Of F P Pr Ri Iv Va At Te E C Co On Nmentioning

confidence: 66%

Drivers of private consumption in the era of financialisation: new evidence for the European Union countries

Barradas¹

2017

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Section: Dr Ri IV Ve Er Rs S O Of F P Pr Ri Iv Va At Te E C Co On Nmentioning

confidence: 66%

Drivers of private consumption in the era of financialisation: new evidence for the European Union countries

Barradas¹

2017

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“…other hand, Malley and Moutos (1996) provided another angle by analyzing unemployment as a measure of aggregate income uncertainty. Using quarterly data from the United States, they find an inverse relationship between the level of consumption and unemployment that is attributable to an increase in precautionary savings during periods of high unemployment.…”

Section: Related Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting Tourist Arrivals in Greece and the Impact of Macroeconomic Shocks from the Countries of Tourists’ Origin

Gounopoulos

Petmezas

Santamaría

2012

Annals of Tourism Research

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This paper generates short-term forecasts on tourist arrivals in Greece and performs impulse response analysis to measure the impact of macroeconomic shocks from the origin country on future tourism demand. We find the ARIMA (1, 1, 1) model outperforms exponential smoothing models in forecasting the direction of one year out of sample forecasts. However, this does not translate into point forecasting accuracy. Impulse response analysis on the impact of unemployment and tourists' cost of living shocks shows that the source of downside risk to future tourism numbers is limited in scope, magnitude, and duration. Shocks to consumer confidence from the origin countries have no impact on future tourism demand. Our results offer important insights and implications for policymakers and tourist operators.

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“…Shrinking home equity left wage income the sole source of consumption income. The aggregate unemployment rate was found to predict the variability of income [5], while mere expectations of unemployment have been found to increase the variability of income [6], which in turn, decreased consumption [7].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 93%

“…One reason may be unemployment. The aggregate unemployment rate and its change predicted the variance of income and income growth [5]. Yet, expectations of unemployment may be as equally effective as actual unemployment in restricting consumption growth as significant decreases of aggregate consumption for reductions in permanent and transitory income have been found to be induced by expectations of unemployment [6].…”

Section: The Economic Justification For Reduced Consumptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Consumption Patterns of the Millenial Generational Cohort

Abraham

Harrington

2015

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This study constructs a consumption profile for the Generation Y age cohort using responses to the Consumer Expenditure Survey furnished by the Bureau of Labor Statistics from the financial crisis period. This generation was theorized to employ both economic reasons, i.e. preferences for inexpensive products, and the desire to comply with the values and normative beliefs of social referent groups. For the rent or buy a home decision, the variability of income, risk of foreclosure and loss of mobility governed the consumption choice. For the purchase a new car or a used car decision, economic considerations dominated with variability of income being the sole explanatory variable for the choice. Family size and the need to conform to group norms explained the choice of bringing food from home to the workplace. Socialization opportunities and group identification explained the decision to eat lunch away from the workplace. Family size and desire for group conformity explained vacation expenditure as they did for bringing food from home. For both furniture and large appliances and small appliances, the need to conform to group norms was significant suggesting that they may be the subject of social interactions. Given that investment in a private education is often considered a luxury, the proportion of the family budget allocated to this expense was significant along with the expected need for conformity with group values.

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Unemployment and Consumption

Cited by 34 publications

References 32 publications

Drivers of private consumption in the era of financialisation: new evidence for the European Union countries

Drivers of private consumption in the era of financialisation: new evidence for the European Union countries

Forecasting Tourist Arrivals in Greece and the Impact of Macroeconomic Shocks from the Countries of Tourists’ Origin

Consumption Patterns of the Millenial Generational Cohort

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