Understanding the Role of User Needs and Perceptions Related to Sub-Seasonal and Seasonal Forecasts on Farmers' Decisions in Kenya: A Systematic Review

Abstract

One major challenge facing farmers and other end users of weather and climate information (WCI) in Kenya is the linkage between their perceptions, needs, and engagements with producers of the information. This is highlighted by increased interest in understanding the constraints on appropriate use of weather information by farmers in decision-making. The choice between sub-seasonal and seasonal forecasts can enable better decisions by farmers if the forecast information is reliable and integrated through a coproduction process. This study analyzes user needs and perceptions of crop farmers, pastoralists, and agro-pastoralists in relation to sub-seasonal and seasonal forecasts for five counties in Kenya. A total of 258 peer-reviewed articles and gray literature were systematically analyzed using Search, Appraisal, Synthesis and Analysis (SALSA) to understand how the needs and perceptions of users of WCI shaped access and use in decision-making. The study also evaluated factors influencing use and uptake of sub-seasonal and seasonal forecasts as well as the barriers to use. Results show that farmers' perceptions shaped the choice of WCI that is used and also highlight how sub-seasonal and seasonal forecasts were used for diverse applications. Gender, availability of resources, access, and mode of communication were key factors influencing the use of seasonal forecasts. For example, access to seasonal forecasts of farmers in drier counties enabled them to manage floods and reduce risk. One lesson learned was that farmers combined WCI with other coping practices such as agronomic practices and water efficiency management. Despite a number of challenges by forecast users such as insufficient resources and lack of access to information, there is potential to improve forecasts according to user needs through a coproduction process. This study recommends stakeholder engagements with producers in the development and evaluation of forecast products and communication pathways to improve uptake and use of forecasts in decision-making.

Access to climate information services and climate-smart agriculture in Kenya: a gender-based analysis

“…Besides, both husbands and wives reported that weather forecasts are not accurate and dependable, which was confirmed by the finding that weather forecasts were negatively associated with adoption decisions by men. The study by Muita et al ( 2021 ) resonates with our conclusions that farmers’ perceptions of information influenced the choice of CI, while lack of trust, precision, and relevance of CI results in low use of information by farmers in Kenya, but their study overlooked gender perceptive of CIS. However, because there is inherent uncertainty in climate information, events might not always turn out exactly as projected (Tall et al 2018 ).…”

“…Our findings resonate with those of Diouf et al ( 2019 ) in Senegal, who found that men had more access to CIS, but both men and women required timely forecast information, such as the onset of the rainy season. To cope with unpredictable climate risks, Muita et al ( 2021 ) discovered that farmers in Kenya require sub-seasonal and seasonal forecasts with reliable information on rainfall onset dates and distribution. The study also found significant gender-specific preferences in CIS dissemination pathways where husbands preferred receiving climate information through agricultural extension officers, print media, television, and local leaders, whereas the wives mainly preferred radio and social groups.…”

“…Farmers’ access to different CIS dissemination pathways influenced access to CIS by men and women. Access to ICT tools such as radio, TV, short messages through mobile phones, agricultural extension officers, participation in social groups, and active participation of NGOs in disseminating adaptation practices and climate information promoted uptake and use of CIS by farmers (Mwaniki et al 2017 ; Ndavula and Lungahi 2018 ; McKune et al 2018 ; Muita et al 2021 ). Kumar et al ( 2021 ) found that co-production of CIS with farmers and a bundle of communication that integrated forecast visualization, face-to-face interaction, printed media, and a smartphone app improved the uptake of CIS by farmers in the Bengal Delta.…”

“…It illustrates that farmers’ adoption of CSA technologies depends on access to CIS and other factors such as gender-related factors, household and farm characteristics, institutional factors like social capital, access to credit, extension services, and CSA technology-related variables (FAO and World Bank 2017 ; Chibowa et al 2020 ; Andati et al 2022 ). Further, access to CIS is not exogenous but is determined by a number of factors, several of which have also been reported to influence the uptake of CSA technologies (Ndavula and Lungahi 2018 ; Partey et al 2020 ; Djido et al 2021 ; Muita et al 2021 ). According to these studies, factors that influence the use of CIS include access to credit, perceptions about climate change, demography, gender, and access to communication technologies like telephone devices and radio.…”

Economic value and latent demand for agricultural drought forecast: Emerging market for weather and climate information in Central-Southern Nigeria

“…Empirical studies among African farmers have shown that seasonal climate forecasts help farmers reduce their vulnerability to drought and climate extremes, while also optimizing their opportunities when favourable rainfall conditions are expected (Awolala, 2018;Roncoli et al, 2009). Several studies have focused on the access and use of weather and climate services for agricultural risk management decision-making in Africa (Alliagbor et al 2020;Awolala et al 2022;Muita et al 2021;Ouédraogo, Ndiaye, and Zougmoré, 2018;Makaudze, 2018;Amegnaglo, Asomanin, and Mensah-bonsu, 2017;Zongo et al, 2016;Limantol et al, 2016;Oyekale, 2015;Rasmussen et al, 2014;Carr et al, 2014;Gebremariam et al, 2013;Mabe et al, 2014;Roncoli et al, 2009Roncoli et al, , 2011Tarhule and Lamb, 2003;Roudier et al, 2011;Zinyengere et al, 2011;Roncoli, Ingram, and Kirshen, 2002). These studies indicate that use of weather information in decision making has substantially benefited farmers.…”