Understanding the modes of tranmission model of new HIV infection and its use in prevention planning

Case, Kelsey K.; Ghys, Peter D.; Gouws, Eleanor; Eaton, Jeffrey W.; Bórquez, Annick; Stover, John; Cuchí, Paloma; Abu‐Raddad, Laith J.; Garnett, Geoffrey P.; Hallett, Timothy B.

doi:10.2471/blt.12.102574

Cited by 62 publications

(83 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…Van Howe's other questionable claims include infection, 'from procedures in which the skin is punctured with needles that have not been properly sterilised' (iatrogenic transmission) or as a result of men failing to disclose engaging in receptive anal intercourse with other men. Space does not allow us to repudiate yet again (see above-cited studies) a non-significant role for any of these in HIV infections in sub-Saharan Africa where heterosexual transmission is undeniably the main driver of HIV infection (Case et al, 2012;Shubber, Mishra, Vesga, & Boily, 2014).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 95%

Circumcision is a primary preventive against HIV infection: Critique of a contrary meta-regression analysis by Van Howe

Morris

Barboza

Wamai

et al. 2016

Global Public Health

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A meta-analysis by Van Howe of 109 populations confirms the well-known association of male circumcision (MC) with reduced HIV prevalence. He then performed meta-regression adjusting for location, risk and MC prevalence. When one or two of these adjustments in combination were applied MC appeared protective, but when all three were introduced the association remained significant in high-risk populations, but not in general populations within Africa with a hypothetical MC prevalence of <25% or elsewhere with hypothetical MC prevalence of <75%. However, many MC prevalence values given differed from those reported in references cited (including all US studies). This and other problems invalidate his adjustments for MC prevalence, undermining most of his meta-regression results. Meta-regression is a highly sophisticated statistical tool and is prone to error if not applied correctly. The study contained a high risk of bias arising from confounding. We also question his use of crude, rather than adjusted, odds ratios and his inclusion of unpublished data, so precluding replication by others. Flawed statistics, opaque presentation of results and inclusion of previously repudiated arguments downplaying a role for MC in HIV prevention programmes should lead readers to be sceptical of the findings and conclusions of Van Howe's study.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 95%

Circumcision is a primary preventive against HIV infection: Critique of a contrary meta-regression analysis by Van Howe

Morris

Barboza

Wamai

et al. 2016

Global Public Health

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“…Precise labelling and reporting may avoid translation of MOT predictions into less effective HIV prevention policies 16. While recommendations exist on how to perform the MOT for prevention planning (minimum data requirements, sensitivity analysis, more representative sexual structures),13 16 27 there are no existing guidelines on reporting standards or how to translate MOT results into HIV prevention policies 13. Second, appropriate (and validated) tools for estimating and identifying different sources of HIV transmission (in the short term and long term) are needed.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The static Modes of Transmission model (MOT) is commonly used to estimate the source of HIV infections 13 17 18. The MOT predicts a single-year distribution of newly acquired HIV infections across subgroups, and therefore end-users of this model do not obtain information on the source of HIV transmission 19 20.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Distinguishing sources of HIV transmission from the distribution of newly acquired HIV infections: why is it important for HIV prevention planning?

et al. 2013

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“…The ''modes of transmission'' model is a useful tool for setting local/national priorities. 15,79 One of the most important overall priorities identified was new strategies to increase the yield of HIV testing programs. Further studies should determine the optimal use of physical venues, internet sites, and other electronic social media.…”

Section: Priorities For Future Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

Toward an Endgame: Finding and Engaging People Unaware of Their HIV-1 Infection in Treatment and Prevention

Burns

DeGruttola

Pilcher

et al. 2014

AIDS Research and Human Retroviruses

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Epidemic modeling suggests that a major scale-up in HIV treatment could have a dramatic impact on HIV incidence. This has led both researchers and policymakers to set a goal of an "AIDS-Free Generation." One of the greatest obstacles to achieving this objective is the number of people with undiagnosed HIV infection. Despite recent innovations, new research strategies are needed to identify, engage, and successfully treat people who are unaware of their infection.

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Understanding the modes of tranmission model of new HIV infection and its use in prevention planning

Cited by 62 publications

References 18 publications

Circumcision is a primary preventive against HIV infection: Critique of a contrary meta-regression analysis by Van Howe

Circumcision is a primary preventive against HIV infection: Critique of a contrary meta-regression analysis by Van Howe

Distinguishing sources of HIV transmission from the distribution of newly acquired HIV infections: why is it important for HIV prevention planning?

Toward an Endgame: Finding and Engaging People Unaware of Their HIV-1 Infection in Treatment and Prevention

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