Understanding the Match: The Effect of Signaling, Demographics, and Applicant Characteristics on Match Success in the Orthopaedic Residency Application Process

Abstract

Introduction: As of the 2022 to 2023 match cycle, orthopaedic residency programs began offering applicants 30 signals as part of a preference signaling program. Many have assumed that signals would become powerful tools in the match process, yet no objective data currently exist analyzing their effect. This study aims to provide such analysis while also offering comparisons with other factors affecting match success. Methods: Self-reported survey data on applicants and applications from 2017 to 2023 from the Texas Seeking Transparency in Application to Residency database were queried. Variables associated with receiving interviews and match success were analyzed using two-sided Student t-tests, chi-squared tests, variance ratio testing, and receiver operating characteristic analysis. Results: Compared with 2017 to 2022, 2023 applicants submitted fewer applications (61.8 versus 78; P < 0.001), received fewer interview offers (11.6 versus 13.8; P < 0.001), and interview offers were spread more evenly among applicants (SD, 6.82 versus 9.10; P < 0.001). For 2023 applications, odds of securing an interview were increased most by away rotations (odds ratios [OR] 61.8; P < 0.001), use of a signal (OR, 9.61; P < 0.001), and geographic connection (OR, 4.70; P < 0.001). Female applicants received more interview offers from signaled programs than their male counterparts (11.2 versus 8.94; P = 0.003). Applicant variables most predictive of match success in 2023 were interview offers (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] = 0.802), step 2 CK score (AUC = 0.673), and step 1 score (AUC = 0.648). Discussion: The preference signaling program seems to be accomplishing its goals of reducing applications and more evenly distributing interviews. Away rotations, signals, and geographic connections represent the strongest predictors of applications resulting in a successful match. Applicants must use their signals carefully to maximize their chance of success. Level of evidence: Level III.