Background: Adoption of molecular techniques to detect Plasmodium falciparum infection has revealed many 11 previously undetected (yet transmissible) low-density infections in areas of low malaria transmission. In a world 12 where numerous countries are approaching elimination, additional data from low transmission areas are 13 required to better understand the determinants of submicroscopic infection and their potential relevance in 14 these settings.
15Methods: We updated a systematic review of studies assessing asexual P. falciparum prevalence by microscopy 16 and PCR in the same population. PubMed and Web of Science databases were searched up to July 2017. Bayesian
Research in Context:1 Evidence before this study: Cross-sectional studies of malaria prevalence in endemic populations have revealed 2 the widespread presence of infections with parasite densities lower than the threshold of detection by 3 microscopy. Previous systematic reviews of these surveys have highlighted that the fraction of P.falciparum 4 infections missed by microscopy can be substantial (~45% of all infections detected by PCR on average), that 5 submicroscopic infection is more likely in adults than in children (a phenomenon attributed to increased levels 6 of immunity), and that this missed fraction (the "submicroscopic reservoir") is typically highest in areas with low 7 transmission intensity. Although further work is required, a number of studies have also demonstrated the 8 capacity of these submicroscopic, low density infections to infect mosquitoes and therefore contribute to 9 onwards transmission.
10Added value of this study: Although previous studies have found that infections in older, more immune 11 individuals are more likely to be submicroscopic, in lower transmission settings where individuals generally 12 develop less immunity, a larger proportion of infections are also typically submicroscopic. Here we present an 13 updated systematic review to explore this apparent paradox across a range of transmission settings and define 14 contexts in which submicroscopic infections are likely to be most relevant to malaria control efforts. Leveraging 15 the substantial increase in the availability of malaria cross-sectional surveys reporting prevalence by molecular 16 methods, we explore the association of submicroscopic infection with a number of novel factors -these include