Understanding the historical turn in the policy sciences: A critique of stochastic, narrative, path dependency and process-sequencing models of policy-making over time

Abstract

This article evaluates four general models of historical change processes which have emerged in various fields in the social sciences -namely stochastic, historical narrative, path dependency and process sequencing -and their application to the study of public policy-making. The article sets out and assesses the merits and evidence for each, both in general social research and in the policy sciences. The article suggests that more work needs to be done examining the assumptions and presuppositions of each model before it can be concluded that any represents the general case in policy processes. However, since neither the irreversible linear reality assumed by narrative models, nor the random and chaotic world assumed by stochastic models, nor the contingent turning points and irreversible trajectories required of the path dependency model are found very often in policy-making, these models are likely to remain less significant than process-sequencing models in describing the overall general pattern of policy dynamics.

The Advocacy Coalition Framework in natural resource policy studies — Recent experiences and further prospects

“…According to Capano (2009), the most prominent theoretical approaches of the policy process are the "chaotic" Multiple-streams Framework (Kingdon, 1995;Zahariadis, 2003Zahariadis, , 2007, "linear stepped evolutionary" Punctuated-equilibrium Framework (Baumgartner and Jones, 1993;True et al, 2007), "eclecticistic" Advocacy Coalition Framework (Sabatier, 1987;Sabatier and Jenkins-Smith, 1999;Sabatier and Weible, 2007) and some historical approaches focusing on narratives or path-dependence (Howlett and Rayner, 2006;cf. Kay, 2005).…”

Presentación Dossier. Lecciones de América Latina sobre las dimensiones racionales, cognitivas e institucionales del cambio de políticas

“…Todos estos enfoques analíticos han emprendido un "giro histórico" al subrayar la importancia de las secuencias y de la temporalidad, así como de los factores estructurales tales como la programación y el ordenamiento histórico de los eventos (Howlett y Rayner 2006;Rayner 2009). Sin embargo cada uno parte de una concepción particular del cambio.…”

The innovativeness of national policy portfolios – climate policy change in Austria, Germany, and the UK

“…From their basic understanding of policy change, we can infer the role tipping points and symbolic innovations play within the process of policy change (Howlett and Rayner 2006, Capano 2009, Van der Heijden 2013. First, the path dependency approach argues that early, rather stochastic events in a sequence have significant influence on the trajectory due to reinforcing mechanisms, whereas later events are inertial (Hall 1993, Mahoney 2000, Hacker 2004.…”

“…While following a consistent policy path, symbolic innovations create a picture of activity but in fact support the status quo. Thus, symbolic innovations serve as negative feedback in order to ensure increasing returns and policy stability (Pierson 2000, Capano 2003, Howlett and Rayner 2006. Second, the process sequencing approach with its application of the punctuated equilibrium model (Haydu 1998, Baumgartner et al 2009) follows the idea of cycles switching between incremental and more radical sequences of change (Howlett 2009).…”