Understanding the evolution of the 2014–2016 summer rainfall seasons in southern Africa: Key lessons

Archer, Emma; Landman, Willem A.; Tadross, Mark; Malherbe, Johan; Weepener, Harold Louw; Maluleke, Phumzile; Marumbwa, Farai Maxwell

doi:10.1016/j.crm.2017.03.006

Cited by 84 publications

(70 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…The drought began to unfold in 2015 when there was significantly lower than average rainfall feeding into Cape Town's water supply system (Knight, ; Otto, Wolski, Lehner, Tebaldi, et al, ; Wolski, ). The Western Cape province was not unique in experiencing unusual hydrological conditions, as Southern Africa as a whole has been experiencing longer‐term drying trends (Archer et al, ). However, as the drought worsened in 2016, the City of Cape Town's water managers remained confident in the system's ability to withstand it (in‐person interviews with city officials in 2016, see also Knight, ).…”

Section: Uncertainty Unpredictability Variabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Water resilience lessons from Cape Town's water crisis

Rodina

2019

WIREs Water

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In the aftermath of the acute water crisis, building resilience in the water sector has become a priority for the City of Cape Town. In this piece, I discuss several emerging lessons from Cape Town's experience and their implications for water resilience more broadly. While having avoided “Day Zero,” Cape Town has also demonstrated how unprepared many municipalities might be as they face growing variability and uncertainty in the hydrologic cycle. Second, Cape Town's experience also signals the limits of conventional demand and supply paradigms that focus on high efficiency and overallocation of water resources. Furthermore, Cape Town's deeply unequal waterscape and acutely divisive politics are among the most important factors that shaped not only how the crisis unfolded, but also the ability of governance systems to respond in a timely and adequate manner. This article is categorized under: Engineering Water > Planning Water Human Water > Water Governance

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Section: Uncertainty Unpredictability Variabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Water resilience lessons from Cape Town's water crisis

Rodina

2019

WIREs Water

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“…The 2015/16 season had very low lake water levels [67] and was characterized by low rainfall due to an El Niño-induced drought that affected Southern Africa [68]. Low water levels amplify sensitivity as fishers reported that their fishing grounds were reduced as a result.…”

Section: Threats Affecting Fishers and Conflicts With Other Lake Usersmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the Sensitivity of Small-Scale Fishery Groups to Climate Change in Lake Kariba, Zimbabwe

et al. 2017

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Abstract:Climate change continues to pose threats to fisheries and fishery-dependent communities globally. Vulnerability to climate change is a function of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Sensitivity is largely determined by the differences in socio-economic conditions among communities, and conflicts over resources often exacerbate this sensitivity. This study aims to understand factors affecting the sensitivity to climate change. The objectives are twofold: first, to develop indicators affecting sensitivity and to determine how they affect sensitivity, second, to compare sensitivity of two small-scale fishing groups (fishing camps and fishing villages). The study used twelve indicators, which are categorized into two; the community characteristics and assets, and threats and conflicts. Results show that fishing camps are less sensitive to climate change than fishing villages since they have more varied livelihood sources, such as crop farming. This allows for more sources of income. Both groups experience conflict with other lake users and wildlife attacks, which amplify their sensitivity through the reduction of fishing grounds and the damaging of fishing gear. It also shows that both climate and non-climate factors affect sensitivity, and understanding this can help to increase adaptive capacity. The findings allow for formulation of policy recommendations to help strengthen the livelihoods of small-scale fisheries.

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“…The region exhibits relatively low adaptive capacity (Kusangaya et al 2014), as the El Niño drought event of 2015/16 amply demonstrates (Archer et al 2017;Baudoin et al 2017). Therefore, future changes in rainfall over this region need to be identified and understood, such that stakeholders, from civil society to policymakers, can make informed decisions about future adaptation planning in key sectors (Collins et al 2012;Knutti et al 2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Precipitation Projections over Central and Southern Africa and the Adjacent Indian Ocean: What Causes the Changes and the Uncertainty?

et al. 2018

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Future projections of precipitation at regional scales are vital to inform climate change adaptation activities. Therefore, is it important to quantify projected changes and associated uncertainty, and understand model processes responsible. This paper addresses these challenges for southern Africa and the adjacent Indian Ocean focusing on the local wet season. Precipitation projections for the end of the twenty-first century indicate a pronounced dipole pattern in the CMIP5 multimodel mean. The dipole indicates future wetting (drying) to the north (south) of the climatological axis of maximum rainfall, implying a northward shift of the ITCZ and south Indian Ocean convergence zone that is not consistent with a simple ''wet get wetter'' pattern. This pattern is most pronounced in early austral summer, suggesting a later and shorter wet season over much of southern Africa. Using a decomposition method we determine physical mechanisms underlying this dipole pattern of projected change, and the associated intermodel uncertainty. The projected dipole pattern is largely associated with the dynamical component of change indicative of shifts in the location of convection. Over the Indian Ocean, this apparent northward shift in the ITCZ may reflect the response to changes in the north-south SST gradient over the Indian Ocean, consistent with a ''warmest get wetter'' mechanism. Over land subtropical drying is relatively robust, particularly in the early wet season. This has contributions from dynamical shifts in the location of convection, which may be related to regional SST structures in the southern Indian Ocean, and the thermodynamic decline in relative humidity. Implications for understanding and potentially constraining uncertainty in projections are discussed.

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Understanding the evolution of the 2014–2016 summer rainfall seasons in southern Africa: Key lessons

Cited by 84 publications

References 11 publications

Water resilience lessons from Cape Town's water crisis

Water resilience lessons from Cape Town's water crisis

Assessing the Sensitivity of Small-Scale Fishery Groups to Climate Change in Lake Kariba, Zimbabwe

Future Precipitation Projections over Central and Southern Africa and the Adjacent Indian Ocean: What Causes the Changes and the Uncertainty?

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