Understanding the Evolution and Socio-Economic Impacts of the Extreme Rainfall Events in March-May 2017 to 2020 in East Africa

Abstract

This study aimed at assessing the evolution, distribution and the socioeconomic impacts of extreme rainfall over East Africa during the March, April and May (MAM) rainfall season focusing on assessing the trends and contribution of MAM rainfall in mean annual rainfall across the region. It employed Principal Component Analysis (PCA) methods to capture the patterns and variability of MAM rainfall. The PCA results indicated that the first Principal Component (PC) describe 17% of the total variance, while the first six PCs account only 53.5% of the total variance in MAM rainfall, underscoring the complexity of rainfall forcing factors in the region. It has been observed that MAM rainfall accounts about 30%-60% of the mean annual rainfall in most parts of the region, signifying its importance in agriculture, water, energy and other socioeconomic sectors. MAM has been characterized by increasing variability with varying trend patterns across the region. The MAM rainfall trend is not homogeneous across the region; some areas are experiencing a slight decreasing rainfall trend, while other areas are experiencing a slight increasing rainfall trend. The observed trend dynamics is consistent with the global trend patterns in precipitation as depicted in recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports. Over the last five years MAM rainfall season have been characterized by record-breaking extremes. On 8 th May 2017, Tanga and Mombasa meteorological stations recorded 316 mm

Review on socio-economic impacts of ‘Triple Threats’ of COVID-19, desert locusts, and floods in East Africa: Evidence from Ethiopia

“…Floods are recognized to be the most frequent and devastating types of natural disaster worldwide, accounting for 40% of all natural disasters (Ohl & Tapsel, 2000;Osti et al, 2008). Socioeconomic development and livelihood activities in most of the developing countries, including East African countries, are strongly affected by climate variability and change (Anande & Luhunga, 2019;Chang'a et al, 2020). In most of the East African countries, the production and productivity in agriculture and livestock sectors are largely influenced by the availability and variability of rainfall amount of a particular season.…”

Spatio-Temporal Assessment of the Performance of March to May 2020 Long Rains and Its Socio-Economic Implications in Northern Coast of Tanzania

“…The variability and changes of seasonal rainfall in wet and dry season results to floods and drought as remarked by [10] that of the seven most flood-prone countries in Africa, five are in eastern Africa. These floods in the region could be attributed to what was noted by [3] that Masika rainfall accounts for about 30% -60% of the mean annual rainfall in most parts of the region. Moreover, [3] noted that Masika rainfall demonstrates its importance to most sectors including agriculture, water, energy and other socio-economic sectors, which contributes to 85% of the climate-driven economic activity in Tanzania [5].…”

“…Though practiced on a small scale and mainly by local peasants, agriculture in Zanzibar has a higher contribution of about 30.8% to the Gross National Product (GNP) (OCGS, 2008) while as in mainland coastal areas agriculture is practiced on a large scale and hence employing a significant number of people. Irrespective of employing about 70% (42% directly) (ZGS, 2007) of the labor force in Zanzibar, the planning and water resources management of this sector is faced by great challenges of climate variability and changes [2] [3] which results or posed major humanitarian concern and threats [3] as well as disrupting seasonal rainfall variability [4]. Both the NCT and Zanzibar lie on two wet distinct climate regimes of long rains (Masika) which take place from March to May (MAM) and short rains (Vuli) which normally occur from October to December.…”

Best Practices and Lessons Learned in the Implementation of Global Framework for Climate Services—Adaptation Programme in Africa: Tanzania-Experience

“…An example was the decision to come up with an activity on rehabilitation of earth dam which was through involvement of local people. This activity was not part of the initial project plan but it was included and implemented after being raised as a local 15,883 farmers and pastoralists from 30 regions were registered in FarmSMS system (up to January 2020); b) SMS and village communicators were found to be potential channels to reach communities since ownership of cell phones is higher than radio in Kiteto and Longido; c) Beep 4 weather and Uliza Poll act as the alternative platforms of receiving climate information in voice messages for those who face difficulties in understanding and interpretation of weather information.…”

“…The initiatives are aimed at strengthening adaptive capacity to climate change by societies including enhancing climate services by increasing effectiveness in the provision and utilization of sciencebased climate services at various levels [6]. Considering the fact that weather and climate risks affect human activities including the implementation of various national policies, the provision of early warning information is critical in saving lives and reducing losses from disastrous hazard events such as drought, storms and floods [12] [13] [14] [15]. Among the initiatives undertaken by WMO and partners in Africa was the implementation of the Global Framework for Climate Services Adaptation Programme in Africa (GFCS-APA).…”