Understanding the Durability of the Paul Biya Regime in Cameroon: A Micro-Level Approach Using Afrobarometer's Round 7 National Survey

Abstract

Paul Biya, who has been in power in Cameroon as a prime minister from 1975 to 1982 and as a president since 1982, is now the longest-ruling non-royal national leader of the world. While this durability has baffled many observers worldwide, it has not yet attracted much attention from academia. In fact, the current literature on Cameroonian politics generally focuses on the dictatorial characteristics of the Paul Biya regime, not on its durability. The purpose of this paper is to fill this gap in the literature. Adopting a micro-level (or bottom-up) approach, we try to understand why most Cameroonian people are willing to stay under the same ruler for at least two generations. Using the Afrobarometer's round 7 national surveys in Cameroon, we apply simple statistical analyses and machine learning (or predictive analytics) to determine to what extent the Cameroonian people support their president and his regime and to identify the predictors (or determinants) of such support. As a result, we find that, despite the so-called "Anglophone crisis" and Boko Haram's attacks in the North, most Cameroonians, especially the French speakers, still approve of the job performance of Biya. The main factors behind this approval have more to do with their trust in the president himself, the approval of the job performance of their parliament members, and their regional location than with the conduct of the country's political affairs or the management of the national economy.