Understanding the divergences between farmer’s perception and meteorological records regarding climate change: a review

Foguesatto, Cristian Rogério; Artuzo, Felipe Dalzotto; Talamini, Édson; Machado, João Armando Dessimon

doi:10.1007/s10668-018-0193-0

Cited by 49 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 54 publications

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“…Some droughts did not appear in precipitation records but were perceived as such by farmers for years of lower fodder yields due to specific events like cold springs or rainy harvests. This finding is consistent with previous studies suggesting that farmers' perceptions are influenced by economic and psychological rather than purely biophysical impacts (Foguesatto et al 2020). Despite actors perceiving recent signals of environmental changes, their discourses did not report past reconfiguration of NCP coproduction due to change in natural capital.…”

Section: Drivers Of Change and Impacts On Nature Contributions To Peosupporting

confidence: 90%

Historical reconfigurations of a social–ecological system adapting to economic, policy and climate changes in the French Alps

et al. 2021

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To ensure their quality of life, people adapt to multiple changes by maintaining or transforming the structure and functions of their socio-ecological systems (SES). A better understanding of mechanisms underpinning SES adaptation, especially the contribution of changes in human–nature interactions, is crucial to facilitate adaptation to future challenges. Using a chronosystemic timeline and based on literature, archives and local knowledge of inhabitants, we explored the past trajectory of a mountain SES (Pays de la Meije, French Alps) since 1900 by analysing drivers, impacts and responses. We hypothesised that adaptation has occurred through changes in the co-production of nature’s contributions to people (NCP). We identified four historical periods of combined changes in agriculture and tourism with associated changes in NCP. Results show which and how drivers of changes have influenced NCP co-production, how NCP have been mobilised in adaptive responses and how human and natural capitals involved in NCP co-production have been reconfigured for adaptation. We show that drivers of change have been mainly exogenous and out of the control of local actors, like public policies, markets and consumption patterns. These drivers can directly impact the capitals involved in NCP co-production like amount of workforce, knowledge or skills, creating not only threats but also opportunities for the livelihood of the local community. Depending on the intensity of capital reconfiguration and the type of NCP involved, adaptive responses range from resistance to transformation of the governance system and socio-economic sectors. This analysis highlights existing path dependencies that could hinder future adaptation.

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Section: Drivers Of Change and Impacts On Nature Contributions To Peosupporting

confidence: 90%

Historical reconfigurations of a social–ecological system adapting to economic, policy and climate changes in the French Alps

et al. 2021

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“…Farmers' perception of trends of rainfall may not corroborate observed meteorological trends for various reasons. As noted in a previous study [20], farmers' perception of decreasing rainfall while it is not happening might show failure in the expected utility and availability heuristic. In line with the utilitarian perspective, farmers' perception of declining rainfall more reflects its livelihood impacts in terms of a decline in agricultural production and food security [18,22,24], which are also caused by factors other than climate change such as a decline in soil fertility and limited use of farm technologies [18,19].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 75%

“…Given these challenges, studies show contrasting results on whether farmers can accurately perceive actual changes in local climate variables. In general, farmers' perception of an increase in temperature aligns with meteorological records [17,20,21]. However, for rainfall, studies show divergence between perception and records [18,19,21,22].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 76%

“…Male farmers' perception is aligned with meteorological data, which might be related to their better position to access information and primary responsibility to engage in farming activities. Proper recognition of changes in climate variables is based partly on the number of years of farming experience, meaning that older-age farmers have a more accurate perception than younger farmers [20,50]. Given the complexity of properly observing trends in weather conditions on the one hand and less reliance on traditional weather forecasts in the study areas on the other hand, higher social capital and exposure to mass media facilitate farmers' access to credible information that helps them form a correct perception of changes in local weather conditions [51].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Trends of Climate Change and Variability in Three Agro-Ecological Settings in Central Ethiopia: Contrasts of Meteorological Data and Farmers’ Perceptions

Etana

Snelder

Wesenbeeck

et al. 2020

Climate

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Using gridded daily temperature and rainfall data covering 30 years (1988–2017), this study investigates trends in rainfall, temperature, and extreme events in three agro-ecological settings in central Ethiopia. The Mann Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator were used to examine the trends and slope of changes in climate indices. The profile of farmers whose perception converges with or diverges from meteorological data was characterized using polling. The average annual temperature has increased by 0.4 and 0.3 °C per decade in the lowland and midland areas, respectively. Average annual rainfall has increased only in the midland areas by 178 mm per decade. Farmers’ perception of increasing temperature fairly aligns with meteorological data. However, there is a noticeable difference between farmers’ perception of rainfall and meteorological data. The perception of farmers with poor economic status, access to media, and higher social capital aligns with measured trends. Conversely, the perception of economically better-off and uneducated farmers diverges from meteorological data. Accurate perception is constrained by the failure of the traditional forecast methods to describe complex weather variabilities and lack of access to down-scaled weather information. The findings highlight the importance of availing specific and agro-ecologically relevant weather forecasts to overcome perceptual problems and to support effective adaptation.

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“…The uninterrupted supply of energy is essential for the functioning of the modern economy, households and, consequently, the quality of life (Corral-Verdugo et al, 2020). At the same time, its production from fossil raw materials is the largest source of emissions of pollutants and greenhouse gases-GHG (Greenhouse Gases), mainly CO 2 , which leads to climate change (Foguesatto et al, 2020;Irman & Shrestha, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

SWOT analysis of renewable energy sector in Mazowieckie Voivodeship (Poland): current progress, prospects and policy implications

Igliński

Skrzatek

Kujawski

et al. 2021

Environ Dev Sustain

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Renewable energy (RE) plays an increasingly important role in the economy of almost every country in the world. In order to examine the state of renewable energy (RE) in Mazowieckie Voivodeship (Poland), a literature review was carried out, anonymous surveys were conducted, a SWOT (Strenghts, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) and TOWS analysis were carried out and the potential of RE in Mazowieckie voivodship was estimated. The total capacity of all installations is equal to 712 MW. In recent months, number of prosumers have increased to 11,742 in the Voivodeship, and the capacity of their installations is estimated at 66 MW. Simplification of legal regulations and educating society is strongly recommended. Respondents in the survey and SWOT analysis on the future of the energy sector in Mazowieckie Voivodeship show that solar energy (35.5% of respondents) and wind energy (24.5% of respondents) have the greatest chances for the development. Development of the RE sector in the Voivodeship means new jobs, both in this sector and around it. Significant RE potential together with large project financing possibilities may cause Mazowieckie Voivodeship to be a leader in RE production in Poland. It is this Voivodeship (with its capital Warsaw) that can serve as an example of the energy transformation towards 100% RE.

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Understanding the divergences between farmer’s perception and meteorological records regarding climate change: a review

Cited by 49 publications

References 54 publications

Historical reconfigurations of a social–ecological system adapting to economic, policy and climate changes in the French Alps

Historical reconfigurations of a social–ecological system adapting to economic, policy and climate changes in the French Alps

Trends of Climate Change and Variability in Three Agro-Ecological Settings in Central Ethiopia: Contrasts of Meteorological Data and Farmers’ Perceptions

SWOT analysis of renewable energy sector in Mazowieckie Voivodeship (Poland): current progress, prospects and policy implications

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