Understanding the development of viticulture in Roman Gaul during and after the Roman climate optimum: The contribution of spatial analysis and agro-ecosystem modeling

Bernigaud, Nicolas; Bondeau, Alberte; Guiot, Joël

doi:10.1016/j.jasrep.2021.103099

Cited by 6 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…During the cold periods (2500, 1300, 700, and 200 yr BP), they occupied approximately the same zone between 34°N and 47°N. During the warmer periods (2000 and 1000 yr BP), the southern limit did not change much, but the northern limit reached 49°N, implying that most of Gaul was suitable for viticulture, as already shown by (Bernigaud et al 2021). The present map is warmer than the pre-industrial period (200 yr BP slice), which suggests that viticulture is now at its maximum potential extension in four thousand years, up to 51°N.…”

Section: Evolution Of Viticulture From the Bronze Age To The End Of T...supporting

confidence: 67%

Viticulture extension in response to global climate change drivers - lessons from the past and future projections

Guiot

Bernigaud

Bondeau

et al. 2022

Preprint

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The potential areal extent of agricultural crops is sensitive to climate change and its underlying drivers. To distinguish between the drivers of past variations in the Mediterranean viticulture since Early Antiquity and improve projections for the future, we propose an original attribution method based on an emulation of coupled climate and ecosystem models. The emulator connects the potential productivity of grapevines to global climate drivers, notably orbital parameters, solar and volcanic activities, demography and greenhouse gas concentrations. We found that variations in potential area for viticulture during the last three millennia in the Mediterranean Basin were mainly due to volcanic activity, while the effect of solar activity and orbital changes were negligible. In the future, as expected, the dominating factor is the increase in greenhouse gases, causing significantly drier conditions and thus major difficulties for viticulture in Spain and North Africa. These constraints will concern significant areas of the Southern Mediterranean Basin when global warming exceeds +2°C above pre-industrial conditions. Our experiments showed that even an intense volcanic activity comparable to that of the Samalas - sometimes considered as the starting point of the Little Ice Age at the mid 13th century - would not slow down this decline in viticulture yield in the southern margin of the Mediterranean area.

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Section: Evolution Of Viticulture From the Bronze Age To The End Of T...supporting

confidence: 67%

Viticulture extension in response to global climate change drivers - lessons from the past and future projections

Guiot

Bernigaud

Bondeau

et al. 2022

Preprint

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…During the cold periods (2500, 1300, 700, and 200 yr BP), they occupied approximately the same area between 34°N and 47°N. During the warmer periods (2000 and 1000 yr BP), the southern limit did not change much, but the northern limit reached 49°N, implying that most of Gaul was suitable for viticulture, as already shown by (Bernigaud et al, 2021). The present map is warmer than the pre-industrial period (200 yr BP slice), which suggests that viticulture is now at its maximum potential extension in four thousand years, up to 51°N.…”

Section: Independent Validationsupporting

confidence: 67%

Viticulture extension in response to global climate change drivers – lessons from the past and future projections

Guiot

Bernigaud

Bondeau

et al. 2023

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. The potential areal extent of agricultural crops is sensitive to climate change and its underlying drivers. To distinguish between the drivers of past variations in the Mediterranean viticulture extension since Early Antiquity and improve projections for the future, we propose an original attribution method based on an emulation of coupled climate and ecosystem models. The emulator connects the potential productivity of grapevines to global climate drivers, notably orbital parameters, solar and volcanic activities, demography and greenhouse gas concentrations. We found that variations in potential area for viticulture during the last three millennia in the Mediterranean Basin were mainly due to volcanic activity, while the effect of solar activity and orbital changes were negligible. In the future, as expected, the dominating factor is the increase in greenhouse gases, causing significantly drier conditions and thus major difficulties for viticulture in Spain and North Africa. These constraints will concern significant areas of the Southern Mediterranean Basin when global warming exceeds +2 °C above pre-industrial conditions. Our experiments showed that even an intense volcanic activity comparable to that of the Samalas – sometimes considered as the starting point of the Little Ice Age at the mid 13th century - would not slow down this decline in viticulture extension in the southern margin of the Mediterranean area.

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“…Archaeological investigations have largely confirmed the importance of viticulture in Languedoc and Provence, as evidenced by the discovery of the remains of wine-growing establishments, wine amphorae workshops, winegrowers’ tools, and grape seeds [ 10 – 14 ] ( Fig 2 ). After reaching its climax in the 2 nd century CE, it began to decline in Narbonne from the 3 rd century CE but nevertheless continued to spread throughout Gaul [ 13 ], as we recently published a paper on this topic with numerous archaeological data [ 15 ].…”

Section: State Of the Artmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…After reaching its climax in the 2 nd century CE, it began to decline in Narbonne from the 3 rd century CE but nevertheless continued to spread throughout Gaul [13], as we recently published a paper on this topic with numerous archaeological data [15].…”

Section: Plos Onementioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of climate change on the agriculture and the economy of Southern Gaul: New perspectives of agent-based modelling

Bernigaud,

Bondeau,

Guiot

et al. 2024

PLoS ONE

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What impact did the Roman Climate Optimum (RCO) and the Late Antique Little Ice Age (LALIA) have on the rise and fall of the Roman Empire? Our article presents an agent-based modelling (ABM) approach developed to evaluate the impact of climate change on the profitability of vineyards, olive groves, and grain farms in Southern Gaul, which were the main source of wealth in the roman period. This ABM simulates an agroecosystem model which processes potential agricultural yield values from paleoclimatic data. The model calculates the revenues made by agricultural exploitations from the sale of crops whose annual volumes vary according to climate and market prices. The potential profits made by the different agricultural exploitations are calculated by deducting from the income the operating and transportation costs. We conclude that the warm and wet climate of the Roman period may have had an extremely beneficial effect on the profitability of wine and olive farms between the 2nd century BCE and the 3rd century CE, but a more modest effect on grain production. Subsequently, there is a significant decrease in the potential profitability of farms during the Late Antique Little Ice Age (4th-7th century CE). Comparing the results of our model with archaeological data enables us to discuss the impact of these climatic fluctuations on the agricultural and economic growth, and then their subsequent recession in Southern Gaul from the beginning to the end of antiquity.

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Understanding the development of viticulture in Roman Gaul during and after the Roman climate optimum: The contribution of spatial analysis and agro-ecosystem modeling

Cited by 6 publications

References 32 publications

Viticulture extension in response to global climate change drivers - lessons from the past and future projections

Viticulture extension in response to global climate change drivers - lessons from the past and future projections

Viticulture extension in response to global climate change drivers – lessons from the past and future projections

The impact of climate change on the agriculture and the economy of Southern Gaul: New perspectives of agent-based modelling

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