Understanding local plant extinctions before it is too late: bridging evolutionary genomics with global ecology

Abstract

Summary Understanding evolutionary genomic and population processes within a species range is key to anticipating the extinction of plant species before it is too late. However, most models of biodiversity risk under global change do not account for the genetic variation and local adaptation of different populations. Population diversity is critical to understanding extinction because different populations may be more or less susceptible to global change and, if lost, would reduce the total diversity within a species. Two new modeling frameworks advance our understanding of extinction from a population and evolutionary angle: Rapid climate change‐driven disruptions in population adaptation are predicted from associations between genomes and local climates. Furthermore, losses of population diversity from global land‐use transformations are estimated by scaling relationships of species' genomic diversity with habitat area. Overall, these global eco‐evolutionary methods advance the predictability – and possibly the preventability – of the ongoing extinction of plant species.

Some like it hot: adaptation to the urban heat island in common dandelion

“…The UHIE might therefore act as a selective pressure towards pre-adaptation to climate change 53 . It would be interesting to investigate whether so-called warm equatorial range edge plant populations have a larger fitness in urban heat islands as compared with all other populations 54 . Facilitating UHIE adaptation of naturally occurring flora, for instance via increased connectivity between natural urban and rural areas, could therefore have a positive effect not only on UHIE mitigation in cities but potentially also on plant adaptation to climate change.…”

Spatial autocorrelation of the environment influences the patterns and genetics of local adaptation

“…Locally adapted populations may harbour genetic variation that could help buffer susceptible ones against the detrimental effects of climate change (Aitken & Whitlock, 2013), which are already wreaking havoc on important species around the world (Hartmann et al, 2022). A deep understanding of local adaptation, the agents that have given rise to it and the genetics that underpin this phenomenon is thus important for our understanding of biodiversity and for species management and conservation in the Anthropocene (Aitken & Whitlock, 2013;Exposito-Alonso, 2023;Wadgymar et al, 2022). The ultimate cause of local adaptation is variation in the environment.…”

Population size as a major determinant of mating system and population genetic differentiation in a narrow endemic chasmophyte

“…In outcrossing taxa, genetic diversity is maintained, whereas in predominantly selfing taxa, the fixation of certain alleles can reduce or even halt the response to environmental change; in extreme cases, the loss of genetic diversity can contribute significantly to the extinction of the entire population (e.g. [ 29 , 50 – 52 ]).…”