Understanding labour market disruptions and job losses amidst COVID-19

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of COVID-19 pandemic-induced lockdown on labour market in India. By using the data of centre for monitoring Indian economy (CMIE)’s consumer pyramids household survey (CPHS), the paper analyses the magnitude and nature of job losses and consequent unprecedented rise in unemployment across gender, social group, occupations during April–June 2020. It finds widespread job losses in labour market with some sections of the society, including small traders, self-employed, migrant workers, daily wage labourers, youth and women being worst affected, who mostly work in the informal sector of the Indian economy. Agriculture sector acted as a sponge by absorbing surplus labour during the times of COVID-19, which was being gradually vacated earlier over the years due to several well-known reasons. The rate of recovery in labour market has been comparatively much slower in case of salaried jobs, youth employment, particularly in rural areas and with elementary education. The economic consequences such disruptions on employment front were even much more serious as a very low percentage of households reporting improvement in their incomes. The most worrying aspect is that though the return to normalcy may take some time, there has been general recessionary trends in employment in India, which have been visible much before the COVID-19 crisis. The policy measures need to be extraordinary in such difficult times, focusing on securing employment and welfare of affected workers through sound and effective social protection programmes along with a major drive for promoting labour-intensive economic activities such as micro- and small enterprises, extension of employment security to poor urban households and skilling/reskilling of labour force to work in post-COVID-changed situations.

Coronavirus pandemic in the South Asia region: Health policy and economy trade-off

“…India had the third-highest percentage increase in the unemployment rate and second-highest decrease in the rate of percentage change of real GDP which correlates with the second-highest COVID-19 disease burden among SAARC countries. A recent study also described a similarly rapid rise in the unemployment trend in India; urban employment decreased by 31% between March and April 2020 [ 36 ]. Nepal, with a much smaller population than India, also showed a similar pattern.…”

Declining Women Work Participation in Rural India: Trends, Causes and Policy Implications

“…The declining employment opportunities in India, particularly for rural women, need immediate attention. The situation would have been worsened due to economic disruptions and related reverse migration during the COVID-19 pandemic, and the recovery may take some time (Mamgain, 2021). Since most of the withdrawal from workforce happened among rural women working in agriculture sector and that too in case of those with lowest educational attainments including a large number of illiterates, the policy makers should keep in mind these facts while designing policies and programmes for promoting employment opportunities for women as well as men both in farm and non-sectors on a large scale, particularly for the post-COVID-19 period of faster recovery.…”

Pandemic‐induced fear and government policy response as a measure of uncertainty in the foreign exchange market: Evidence from (a)symmetric wild bootstrap likelihood ratio test

“…Using the Consumer Pyramids Household Survey conducted by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy, Mamgain (2021) analysed the magnitude and nature of job losses across gender, social groups, and occupations from April to June 2020 and found widespread job losses. Small traders, self‐employed, migrant workers, daily wage labourers, youth, and women were the worst affected.…”

“…Previous studies have analysed the impact of lockdown on the environment (Garg et al, 2020; Jain & Sharma, 2020; Krishan et al, 2021; Kumari & Toshniwal, 2022; Mohite et al, 2022; Palle et al, 2021; Sahoo et al, 2021; Saxena & Raj, 2021; Singh & Chauhan, 2020; Soni, 2021), employment and labour markets (Abraham et al, 2022; Bhatt et al, 2021; Deshpande, 2020; Kapoor, 2020; Mamgain, 2021; Vyas, 2020), education (Kapasia et al, 2020; Ravi, 2020; Singh et al, 2022), mental health and lifestyle (Das et al, 2021; Grover et al 2020; John & John, 2021; Nilima et al, 2021; Narayanan et al, 2020), and tourism (Chandel et al, 2021; Jaipuria et al, 2021; Kumar, 2020; Patil & Naik, 2020; Seraphin & Dosquet, 2020; Sharma et al, 2020; Singh et al, 2021). There has been little research on the possible influence of lockdowns on the Indian foreign exchange market.…”