Understanding Future Climate in the Upper Awash Basin (UASB) with Selected Climate Model Outputs under CMIP6

Balcha, Yonas Abebe; Malcherek, Andreas; Alamirew, Tena

doi:10.3390/cli10120185

Cited by 9 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…The finding also agreed with similar work in Ethiopia that the past and future climate projections increasing under CMIP6-SSPs scenarios (Alaminie et al, 2021, Gebresellase, 2022, Balcha et al, 2022. Balcha et al, (2022) also noted that the average annual maximum temperature projected to increase 1.6 o C for SSP2-4.5 scenario, 2.0 o C for SSP5-8.5 scenario at mid-century and 2.0 o C for SSP2-4.5 scenario and 3.0 o C for SSP5-8.5 scenario at end of century.…”

Section: Heat Wave Magnitude Index Daily (Hwmid)supporting

confidence: 91%

Heat Wave Magnitude Projection in the Middle Awash Basin Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project the 6th Phase (CMIP6)

Badacho

2023

Preprint

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Globally, the intensity and irregularity of weather and climate extremes are increasing due to climate change. In Ethiopia, the occurrence of extreme events has been increasing, reporting severe impacts on environment which led to losses of lives and livelihood of societies. In this study, Heat Wave Magnitude Index daily (HWMId) was used to analysis heat wave magnitude in the Middle Awash Basin of Ethiopia. Gauge data obtained from Ethiopian Meteorological Institution (EMI) for 1981-2022 period and the future projection was taken from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under two socioeconomic pathways (SSP 2 and SSP 5) scenarios. The findings clearly showed that the area aggregated annual temperature anomaly increasing each year, 2015 was one of the warmest year on record with an anomaly of +1.8 °C. Severe to extreme heat wave recorded particularly during the last 10 years. For the future projection, under SSP 2-4.5 forcing scenario, the annual average air temperature projected to be warmer, which increasing 1.7 ℃ to 1.8 ℃ during mid-century and 2.3 ℃ to 2.4 ℃ end of century. Meanwhile, for SSP 5-8.5 forcing, the projection indicated an increment of 2.2 ℃ to 2.5 ℃ under mid-century and 4.4 ℃ to 4.8 ℃ end of century. Concerning the severity of heat wave, extreme to very extreme heat wave projected under SSP 2-4.5 forcing scenario and supper extreme heat wave projected under SSP 5-8.5 forcing scenario, respectively. The increase in extreme events may have a negative impact on health, water availability and food security. Therefore, the result of this study are essential for making wise decisions and for developing suitable strategies for climate change adaptation and mitigation that could minimize the risk of unusually extreme weather events.

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Section: Heat Wave Magnitude Index Daily (Hwmid)supporting

confidence: 91%

Heat Wave Magnitude Projection in the Middle Awash Basin Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project the 6th Phase (CMIP6)

Badacho

2023

Preprint

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“…This projection will be executed using an ensemble of selected climate model outputs from the CMIP6 archive. In a previous study by Balcha, Y.A (2022) (Balcha et al 2022), a meticulous ranking of climate models was conducted to pinpoint those capable of accurately capturing the climatic characteristics of the Upper Awash Sub-basin.…”

Section: Future Water Availability Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparability of NARX Model to SWAT Model in Simulating Future Water Resources Scenarios using CMIP6 Climate Model Outputs over UASB, Ethiopia

Balcha,

Kaveh,

Alamirew

et al. 2024

Preprint

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Quantifying water resource potential is crucial for making well-informed decisions in planning, managing, and developing water resources within a given study area. This study utilizes an ensemble of climate variables derived from five CMIP6 climate models (ECEARTH3, GFDL-ESM4, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, MRIESM2, and INM-CM5-0) to simulate future monthly streamflow conditions over the Upper-Awash Sub-Basin (UASB) for three Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1.26, SSP2.45, & SSP5.85) until the end of the 21st century. Streamflow simulations are conducted using both a non-linear data-driven model, NARX, and a physically based model, SWAT. These models are trained and validated using observed streamflow data from a gauging station at the outlet of the sub-basin. During training, the NARX model exhibits a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 94%, while the SWAT model achieves 88%. In validation, NARX maintains a high NSE of 92%, compared to SWAT's 82%. Overall, the NARX model demonstrated superior performance and applicability for quick streamflow simulation with fewer input variables. However, it struggles with peak flow simulations due to its sensitivity to outliers in the training phase. Despite differences in their capabilities, both models project an increase in future monthly streamflow across all scenarios and time periods. Seasonal projections indicate a rise in streamflow during the rainy seasons of spring and summer, while dry periods (Dec-Jan-Feb) experience a decrease. The anticipated increase in streamflow during rainy seasons may exacerbate flood incidences, especially when combined with escalating industrialization and population growth within the sub-basin.

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“…Heyi et al [ 23 ] pointed out that climate change has a considerable impact on energy, water, and agricultural productivity. According to various research studies, the effects of climate change on the environment will only get worse in the future [ 22 , 23 ]. Ethiopia has experienced rising temperatures and notable changes in rainfall [ 24 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Ripple Effect of Climate Change: Assessing the Impacts on Water Quality and Hydrology in Addis Ababa City (Akaki Catchment)

Gule,

Hailu,

Lemma

2024

Scientifica

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This research aimed to evaluate the effects of climate change on the hydrology and water quality in the Akaki catchment, which provides water to Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. This was performed using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model and an ensemble of four global climate models under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) emission scenarios from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The climate data were downscaled and bias-corrected using the CMhyd tool and calibrated and validated using the SWAT-CUP software package. Change points and patterns in annual rainfall and temperature were determined using the homogeneity test and Mann–Kendell trend test. Water quality data were obtained from Addis Ababa Water and Sewerage Authority (AAWSA), and more samples were taken and analyzed in accordance with APHA recommended procedures. The SWAT model output was then used to assess the impacts of climate change on hydrological components and water quality. Rainfall increased by 19.39 mm/year under SSP2-4.5 and 12.8 mm/year under SSP8.5. Maximum temperature increased by 0.03°C/yr for SSP2-4.5 and 0.04°C/yr for SSP5-8.5. Minimum temperature increased by 0.03°C/yr under SSP2-4.5 and 0.07°C/yr under SSP5-8.5. This warming will augment the evapotranspiration rate which in turn will have a negative impact on the freshwater availability. Streamflow will increase by 5% under SSP2-4.5 and 9.49% under SSP5-85 which may increase sporadic flooding events. Climate change is expected to contribute to the deterioration of water quality shown by 61%, 36%, 79%, 115%, and 70% increased ammonia, chlorophyll-a, nitrite, nitrate, and phosphorus loadings, respectively, from 2022. The increase in temperature results in increases in nutrient loading and a decrease in dissolved oxygen. Overall, this research demonstrated the vulnerability of the catchment to climate change. The findings of this research can offer vital knowledge to policymakers on possible strategies for the sustainable management of water.

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Understanding Future Climate in the Upper Awash Basin (UASB) with Selected Climate Model Outputs under CMIP6

Cited by 9 publications

References 48 publications

Heat Wave Magnitude Projection in the Middle Awash Basin Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project the 6th Phase (CMIP6)

Heat Wave Magnitude Projection in the Middle Awash Basin Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project the 6th Phase (CMIP6)

Comparability of NARX Model to SWAT Model in Simulating Future Water Resources Scenarios using CMIP6 Climate Model Outputs over UASB, Ethiopia

The Ripple Effect of Climate Change: Assessing the Impacts on Water Quality and Hydrology in Addis Ababa City (Akaki Catchment)

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