Understanding digital drug markets through the geography of postal drug deliveries in Scotland

Abstract

An increase in the use of postal services to deliver drugs purchased online raises concerns about widening access to drugs markets, especially in remote and rural areas that were previously protected by geographical boundaries. Yet, little is known about the geographical patterning of drugs delivered through the post. Using a novel law enforcement dataset containing details of illegal drug packages intercepted by UK Border Force en-route to Scotland, we examine the geographical destination of drugs purchased online and explore the area-based characteristics associated with higher rates of delivery. This paper provides previously unavailable insights into the spatial patterning of digital drugs markets at sub-national level.We use descriptive statistics, Bayesian hierarchical regression models, and spatial autocorrelation to describe the relationship between area-based characteristics and expected rate of illegal drug consignments identified across Scotland.The majority of intercepted drug packages were destined for urban centres, but there was a higher than expected delivery rate to some of Scotland's remote and rural locations. Increased rates of drug delivery within Scottish neighbourhoods was associated with higher levels of crime and deprivation, internet connectivity and with access to services, but not with higher rates of drug-related hospitalisation. Analysis of spatial clustering showed that drug delivery to the most remote and rural locations was still associated with good access to services because the packages were typically delivered to addresses in larger settlements within remote locations.Overall postal drugs delivery reflects both relatively high use in more urban, more deprived areas but also seems to open up more remote regions to drug markets, albeit with usage concentrated in larger settlements within otherwise remote areas.

Controlled Delivery of Illegal Drug Parcels in Scotland: Does Policing Practice Align With a Public Health Approach Focused on Drug-Related Harm?

“…This included a mixture of LAAs with large urban populations in the West of Scotland, such as Glasgow and Renfrewshire, and some extremely remote and rural LAAs in the North of Scotland, including the Highlands, and the Shetland and Western Isles. Previous analysis of NCA data (Matthews et al, 2021) found evidence of spatial clustering of seized drug parcels at datazone level – especially within remote and rural locations of Scotland. This could be suggestive of strategic purchasing activity, where larger numbers of smaller parcels are purchased in an attempt to evade law enforcement detection or prosecution (see Densley et al, 2018).…”

“…The locus of both seized parcels and controlled deliveries was highly clustered in some areas and very sparse in others (Matthews et al 2021). The sparsity of the data made it challenging to implement traditional statistical methods, as low sample size can affect statistical power, which can yield non-significant or potentially biased results (Gelman, 2013; Kruschke, 2014).…”

“…These technologies have changed the dynamics of buying drugs, by connecting customers to a much wider global supply network and enabling the direct delivery of drugs via postal systems (Martin, 2014; National Crime Agency, 2018). While reducing some of the risks to buyers associated with traditional physical markets, including detection and exposure to violence (Bakken, Moeller, and Sandberg, 2018), purchasing drugs online has also increased the potential for greater drug-related harm to both individuals and communities (MacCoun and Reuter, 2001; Matthews et al, 2021). While it is impossible to quantify the scale of global online drugs markets, the NCA (2018) has expressed concern that the increasing volume of illicit drug consignments transiting the UK border via fast parcels and post is likely to continue rising in line with online consumer demand.…”

“…Drug dependence is higher in the most deprived communities (Information Service Division, 2019a), where residents are 18 times more likely to die from drugs than those in the least deprived communities (National Records of Scotland, 2021). However, recent research shows a proliferation of drug distribution across the country (Densley et al, 2018), with easy access to drugs expanding well beyond areas of intense deprivation (Crew 2000, 2019), including into previously protected remote and rural communities (Matthews et al, 2021). The growth of online markets has contributed to this proliferation, making drugs more easily accessible to both individual users and serious and organised crime gangs (Densley et al, 2018) and increasing the volume, variety and purity of illegal drugs entering Scotland (Crew 2000, 2019).…”