Understanding carbon lock-in

Unruh, Gregory C.

doi:10.1016/s0301-4215(00)00070-7

Cited by 2,179 publications

(1,087 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…This view is supported by micro-modeling (Arthur, 1989) and various case studies; wellknown examples include keyboard layout and video recorders (David, 1985;Cusumano et al, 1992) but also energy technologies (Cowan and Hulten, 1996;Islas, 1997). In the context of global warming, research has focused on lock-in into fossil fuel technologies exacerbating the switch to carbon-free energy (Unruh, 2000(Unruh, , 2002Foxon and Pearson, 2007;Schmidt and Marschinski, 2009). In contrast, this paper examines the case of two competing low-carbon energy technologies.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Learning or lock-in: Optimal technology policies to support mitigation

Kalkuhl

Edenhofer

Lessmann

2012

Resource and Energy Economics

168

141

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. We investigate conditions that aggravate market failures in energy innovations, and suggest optimal policy instruments to address them. Using an intertemporal general equilibrium model we show that "small" market imperfections may trigger a several decades lasting dominance of an incumbent energy technology over a dynamically more efficient competitor, given that the technologies are very good substitutes. Such a "lock-in" into an inferior technology causes significantly higher welfare losses than market failure alone, notably under ambitious mitigation targets. More than other innovative industries, energy markets are prone to these lock-ins because electricity from different technologies is an almost perfect substitute. To guide government intervention, we compare welfare-maximizing technology policies in addition to carbon pricing with regard to their efficiency, effectivity, and robustness. Technology quotas and feed-in-tariffs turn out to be only insignificantly less efficient than first-best subsidies and seem to be more robust against small perturbations. Terms of use: Documents inJEL-Code: O380, Q400, Q540, Q550.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Learning or lock-in: Optimal technology policies to support mitigation

Kalkuhl

Edenhofer

Lessmann

2012

Resource and Energy Economics

168

141

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“…Even if the early stages of path dependency allow for some degree of variety, by later phases there is only one path left; the number of alternative choices gradually decreases (David, 1985;Arthur, 1989;Cowan and Gunby, 1996) until companies or entire industries become locked-in to one -often inferioroption, e.g. a technology (Unruh, 2000;Vergne and Durand, 2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Is one path enough? Multiple paths and path interaction as an extension of path dependency theory

Bergek

Onufrey

2013

Industrial and Corporate Change

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In order to explain the development of multi-technology companies and industries where several alternative technologies co-exist and interact over long time periods, this paper suggests an extension of path dependency theory by providing a conceptualization of the path notion which incorporates the theoretical possibility of multiple paths and path interaction. The conceptualization is applied to a patent study of three leading companies in the lighting industry: General Electric, Osram/Siemens and Philips. The study shows technology development patterns that are characterized by strong persistence, both within each path and across the whole technology field. These results demonstrate that multiple technological paths can co-exist in companies and industries, characterized by simultaneous long-term presence of several technologies. In such cases, path interaction takes place both between co-existing paths and when new, radically different paths are created. Although further studies are needed to identify the underlying self-reinforcing mechanisms, there is a clear indication that technological path dependency is not restricted to unitary progression patterns, as implied by previous conceptualizations.

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“…But also in Germany, coal and lignite are the major domestic energy resource and also the dominating input to electricity generation. Prospects for escaping a "carbon lockin" and the related environmental and climate impacts are unfavorable at present (Unruh 2000;Unruh 2002;Perkins 2003;Unruh and Carrillo-Hermosilla 2006). In this context, Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) promises to enable the low-emissions coal power station.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%