Understanding and improving effort estimation in Agile software development

Abstract

Effort estimation is more challenging in an agile context, as instead of exerting strict control over changes in requirements, dynamism is embraced. Current practice relies on expert judgment, where the accuracy of estimates is sensitive to the expertise of practitioners and prone to bias. In order to improve the effectiveness of the effort estimation process, the goal of this research is to investigate and understand the estimation process with respect to its accuracy in the context of agile software development from the perspective of agile development teams. Using case study research, two observations and eleven interviews were conducted with three agile development teams at SAP SE, a German multinational software corporation. The results reveal that factors such as the developer's knowledge and experience and the complexity and impact of changes on the underlying system affect the magnitude as well as the accuracy of estimation. Moreover, if certain aspects of the estimation process, such as the potential impact of a change on the underlying system, are supported by a tool can help improve estimation accuracy. We conclude that explicit consideration of these factors in the estimation process can support experts in making accurate and informed estimates. Furthermore, there is a need for a tool that incorporates expert knowledge, enables explicit consideration of cost drivers by experts and visualizes this information in order to improve the effectiveness of the effort estimation process.

An evaluation of effort estimation supported by change impact analysis in agile software development

“…However, expert estimates seem to be more accurate if domain knowledge is not included in the model or when uncertainty is high. The results also align with our previous case study in which we found that to improve expert‐based estimation, decision support is required that provides useful historical data and impact information.…”

“…Researchers have identified the need for considering the impact of a change on the underlying system to improve the effectiveness of expert‐based estimation methods. () Change impact analysis (IA) techniques identify software life cycle objects that are likely to be affected by a given change request …”

“…1 Researchers have identified the need for considering the impact of a change on the underlying system to improve the effectiveness of expert-based estimation methods. 7,8 Change impact analysis (IA) techniques identify software life cycle objects that are likely to be affected by a given change request. 9In our previous work, 8,10,11 to support expert-based estimation methods with change impact analysis, we have synthesized research from two areas: (1) change impact analysis 9 and (2) effort estimation (both expert and model based).…”

An Effort Estimation Taxonomy for Agile Software Development

“…Tanveer et al [12] performed an industrial case study to understand and improve e®ort estimation in ASD. The results showed that the accuracy of the e®ort estimation is a®ected by factors such as developers' knowledge and experience, and the complexity of the required changes in the system.…”

Effort estimation in agile software development: Case study and improvement framework

“…Performing a case study with a case company in the, we investigated why and how estimation is done and what factors are considered relevant for making estimates and for improving estimation accuracy. The study further established the need for tool support and helped to identify the requirements for such a tool.…”