Underestimation of extremes in sea level surge reconstruction
Ludovic Harter,
Lucia Pineau-Guillou,
Bertrand Chapron
Abstract:Statistical models are an alternative to numerical models for reconstructing storm surges at a low computational cost. These models directly link surges to metocean variables, i.e., predictors such as atmospheric pressure, wind and waves. Such reconstructions usually underestimate extreme surges. Here, we explore how to reduce biases on extremes using two methods—multiple linear regressions and neural networks—for surge reconstructions. Models with different configurations are tested at 14 long-term tide gauge… Show more
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