Underestimated AMOC Variability and Implications for AMV and Predictability in CMIP Models

Yan, Xiaolei; Zhang, Rong; Knutson, Thomas R.

doi:10.1029/2018gl077378

Cited by 85 publications

(116 citation statements)

References 61 publications

(95 reference statements)

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“…Multidecadal AMOC variability is a key player in AMV's impact on global and Northern Hemisphere mean surface temperature in CGCMs' control simulations (Barcikowska et al, ; Park et al, ; Stolpe et al, ; Wu et al, ; Yan et al, ), consistent with the simulated impact of multidecadal AMOC change or collapse on global and Northern Hemisphere mean surface temperature in CGCMs' internally perturbed or externally forced simulations (Delworth et al, ; Delworth & Zeng, ; Drijfhout, ; Stolpe et al, ). The linkage between AMV and the Northern Hemisphere mean surface temperatures is stronger (weaker) in CGCMs with relatively stronger (weaker) low‐frequency AMOC variability (Yan et al, ). The impact of the AMOC on the Northern Hemisphere mean surface temperature is stronger in some CGCMs with the mean state North Atlantic SSS biases artificially corrected than otherwise (Park et al, ; Wu et al, ).…”

Section: Climate Impacts Of Multidecadal Amoc Variability and Amvmentioning

confidence: 56%

“…The directly observed AMOC at 26°N from the RAPID program exhibits a significant downward shift over the recent decade since 2004, which has been widely interpreted as arising from intrinsic decadal/multidecadal AMOC variability and a reversal from the previous AMOC strengthening (e.g., Jackson et al, ; Robson, Hodson, et al, ; Robson et al, ; Smeed et al, , ; Yan et al, , ). The total reduction of the directly observed AMOC at 26°N between 2004–2009 and 2009–2014 is 2.9 Sv and is statistically significant (Frajka‐Williams et al, ).…”

Section: Amoc‐amv Linkagementioning

confidence: 99%

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A Review of the Role of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and Associated Climate Impacts

Zhang

Sutton

Danabasoglu

et al. 2019

Reviews of Geophysics

Self Cite

366

362

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By synthesizing recent studies employing a wide range of approaches (modern observations, paleo reconstructions, and climate model simulations), this paper provides a comprehensive review of the linkage between multidecadal Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) variability and Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) and associated climate impacts. There is strong observational and modeling evidence that multidecadal AMOC variability is a crucial driver of the observed AMV and associated climate impacts and an important source of enhanced decadal predictability and prediction skill. The AMOC‐AMV linkage is consistent with observed key elements of AMV. Furthermore, this synthesis also points to a leading role of the AMOC in a range of AMV‐related climate phenomena having enormous societal and economic implications, for example, Intertropical Convergence Zone shifts; Sahel and Indian monsoons; Atlantic hurricanes; El Niño–Southern Oscillation; Pacific Decadal Variability; North Atlantic Oscillation; climate over Europe, North America, and Asia; Arctic sea ice and surface air temperature; and hemispheric‐scale surface temperature. Paleoclimate evidence indicates that a similar linkage between multidecadal AMOC variability and AMV and many associated climate impacts may also have existed in the preindustrial era, that AMV has enhanced multidecadal power significantly above a red noise background, and that AMV is not primarily driven by external forcing. The role of the AMOC in AMV and associated climate impacts has been underestimated in most state‐of‐the‐art climate models, posing significant challenges but also great opportunities for substantial future improvements in understanding and predicting AMV and associated climate impacts.

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Section: Climate Impacts Of Multidecadal Amoc Variability and Amvmentioning

confidence: 56%

Section: Amoc‐amv Linkagementioning

confidence: 99%

A Review of the Role of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and Associated Climate Impacts

Zhang

Sutton

Danabasoglu

et al. 2019

Reviews of Geophysics

Self Cite

366

362

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…As the AMO shows long persistence of phase and relatively high decadal predictability, which mainly stems from the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (Keenlyside et al, 2008;Trenary & DelSole, 2016;Yan et al, 2018). As the AMO shows long persistence of phase and relatively high decadal predictability, which mainly stems from the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (Keenlyside et al, 2008;Trenary & DelSole, 2016;Yan et al, 2018).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent Acceleration of Arabian Sea Warming Induced by the Atlantic‐Western Pacific Trans‐basin Multidecadal Variability

Sun

Kucharski

et al. 2019

Geophysical Research Letters

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Arabian Sea (AS) warming has been significantly accelerated since the 1990s, in particular in the spring season. Here we link the AS warming changes to the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). A set of Atlantic pacemaker experiments with a slab mixed‐layer ocean model successfully reproduces the AS spring multidecadal variability and its connection with the AMO. An atmospheric teleconnection from the Atlantic to the AS in the preceding winter and associated thermodynamic air‐sea feedback is found to be important. The teleconnection can be reestablished by the atmospheric model when the AMO sea surface temperature (SST) and its trans‐basin footprint over the western Pacific are prescribed simultaneously. The western Pacific SST warming associated with the AMO positive phase induces a Gill‐type Rossby wave over the AS, showing anomalously low pressures and converging southerlies that weaken winter northerlies. Thus, the wind‐evaporation‐SST feedback results in and maintains the AS warm SST anomalies to the subsequent spring.

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“…Further analysis is also required to identify the model biases that lead to weaker-than-observed IPO and AMV. Biases in simulations of AMV might be linked with underestimated variability in modeled Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (Yan et al, 2018). In the model-mean, multidecadal GMST trends are more strongly correlated with SST trends in the tropics.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Global Mean Surface Temperature Response to Large‐Scale Patterns of Variability in Observations and CMIP5

Kajtar

Collins

Frankcombe

et al. 2019

Geophysical Research Letters

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Global mean surface temperature (GMST) fluctuates over decadal to multidecadal time scales. Patterns of internal variability are partly responsible, but the relationships can be conflated by anthropogenically forced signals. Here we adopt a physically based method of separating internal variability from forced responses to examine how trends in large‐scale patterns, specifically the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV), influence GMST. After removing the forced responses, observed variability of GMST is close to the central estimates of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 simulations, but models tend to underestimate IPO variability at time scales >10 years, and AMV at time scales >20 years. Correlations between GMST trends and these patterns are also underrepresented, most strongly at 10‐ and 35‐year time scales, for IPO and AMV, respectively. Strikingly, models that simulate stronger variability of IPO and AMV also exhibit stronger relationships between these patterns and GMST, predominately at the 10‐ and 35‐year time scales, respectively.

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Underestimated AMOC Variability and Implications for AMV and Predictability in CMIP Models

Cited by 85 publications

References 61 publications

A Review of the Role of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and Associated Climate Impacts

A Review of the Role of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and Associated Climate Impacts

Recent Acceleration of Arabian Sea Warming Induced by the Atlantic‐Western Pacific Trans‐basin Multidecadal Variability

Global Mean Surface Temperature Response to Large‐Scale Patterns of Variability in Observations and CMIP5

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