Uncertainty of runoff sensitivity to climate change in the Amazon River basin

Carmona, Alejandra; Renner, Maik; Kleidon, Axel; Poveda, Germán

doi:10.1111/nyas.14515

Cited by 4 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 90 publications

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“…Climate is the most basic and important factor affecting runoff, directly changing the land‐gas water cycle structure and causing the spatial and temporal distribution of the water resource system configuration change via the redistributed of precipitation and temperature change (Carmona, Renner, Kleidon, & Poveda, 2020). The present study results showed that annual precipitation had insignificant downward trends (Figure 2), but E p showed significant upward trend (Figure 3) in most regions.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of climate change and anthropogenic activities on runoff change of the Weihe River basin, Northwest China

Xie

Qiu

et al. 2023

River Research & Apps

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The Weihe River has experienced a significant runoff decline in the past few decades, but the detailed and systematic analysis of different sub‐regions of the Weihe River basin (WRB) for a long time is insufficient. Based on the data of five hydrological stations from 1957 to 2018, this study investigated the variation of annual runoff both in the whole Weihe River basin (WWRB) and its sub‐regions: the upper, middle, and lower reaches of the Weihe River (URWR, MRWR, LRWR, respectively), the Jing River basin (JRB), and the Beiluo River basin (BLRB). Moreover, the contribution of climate change and anthropogenic activities on runoff change was quantified by double mass curve (DMC) and hydrological sensitivity analysis (HSA) methods. The results showed that runoff of the URWR, MRWR, JRB, BLRB, and WWRB showed significant downward trends, and with the change‐point years of 1993, 1990, 1996, 1994, and 1993, respectively. Both results of DMC and HSA showed that anthropogenic activities were the main factors for runoff reduction. The contribution of human activities was largest in the JRB and BLRB, whereas lowest in the MRWR. Over the study period, land use has changed significantly in the basin, mainly manifested in the reduction of farmland, and the increase of construction land and grassland, indicating that intense anthropogenic activities have taken place. Moreover, the total water consumption of the WWRB increased evidently, which exacerbated the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources. The results of HSA showed that runoff was more sensitive to precipitation than to Ep. Precipitation reduced the runoff, while Ep increased runoff in the basin. The results of this study are helpful for understanding the regional hydrological situation in more detail, and can act as a reference for formulating reasonable water resources allocation schemes.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of climate change and anthropogenic activities on runoff change of the Weihe River basin, Northwest China

Xie

Qiu

et al. 2023

River Research & Apps

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“…From the IPCC fifth assessment report (IPCC, 2013), the global average surface temperature rose by 0.85 • C during the period of 1880-2012, and the increasing rate from 1951 to 2012 was twice as fast as that since 1880. Human activities such as agricultural irrigation, industrial water use and the construction of reservoirs are already changing the hydrological cycle [8,9]. In the context of global climate, the distribution of water resources has been temporally and spatially altered by the comprehensive effects of human activities to a certain extent [10][11][12].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of Climatic Variation and Human Activity on Runoff in Western China

Yin-ge

Zhao

et al. 2022

Sustainability

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Hydrological cycle is sensitively affected by climatic variation and human activity. Taking the upper- and middle-stream of the Weihe River in western China as an example, using multiple meteorological and hydrological elements, as well as land-use/land-cover change (LUCC) data, we constructed a sensitivity model of runoff to climatic elements and human activities based on the hydro-thermal coupling equilibrium equation, while a cumulative slope was used to establish a comprehensive estimation model for the contributions of climatic variation and human activities to the changes of runoff. The results showed that the above function model established could be well applied to quantitatively study the elasticity of runoff’s response to climatic variation and human activities. It was found that the annual average precipitation, evaporation, wind velocity, sunshine hours, relative humidity and runoff showed decreasing trends and that temperature increased. While in the hydrological cycle, precipitation and relative humidity had a non-linear positive driving effect on runoff, while temperature, evaporation, sunshine hours, wind velocity, and land-use/land-cover change (LUCC) have non-linearly negatively driven the variation of runoff. Moreover, runoff has a strong sensitive response to precipitation, evaporation and LUCC. In areas with strong human activities, the sensitivity of runoff to climatic change was decreasing, and runoff has a greater elastic response to underlying surface parameters. In addition, the analysis showed that the abrupt years of climate and runoff changes in the Weihe River Basin were 1970, 1985 and 1993. Before 1985, the contribution rate of climatic variation to runoff was 68.3%, being greater than that of human activities to runoff, and then the contribution rates of human activities to runoff reached 75.1%. The impact of natural climate on runoff was weakened, and the effect of human activities on runoff reduction increased. Under 30 hypothetical climatic scenarios, the evaluation of runoff in the future showed that the runoff in the Weihe River Basin will be greatly reduced, and the reduction will be more significant during the flood season. Comparing the geographically fragile environments and intense human activities, it was believed that climatic variation had a dramatic effect on driving the water cycle of precipitation and evaporation and affected regional water balance and water distribution, while human activities had driven the hydrological processes of the underlying surface, thus becoming the main factors in the reduction of runoff. This study provided scientific tools for regional climate change and water resources assessment.

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A hybrid mathematical model for estimation of runoff uncertainty influenced by climate drivers

Zuo

Qian

2022

Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess

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Uncertainty of runoff sensitivity to climate change in the Amazon River basin

Cited by 4 publications

References 90 publications

Effects of climate change and anthropogenic activities on runoff change of the Weihe River basin, Northwest China

Effects of climate change and anthropogenic activities on runoff change of the Weihe River basin, Northwest China

Impacts of Climatic Variation and Human Activity on Runoff in Western China

A hybrid mathematical model for estimation of runoff uncertainty influenced by climate drivers

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