Uncertainty of Rate of Change in Korean Future Rainfall Extremes Using Non-Stationary GEV Model

Seo, Jiyu; Won, Jeongeun; Choi, Jeonghyeon; Lee, Jungmin; Jang, Sun Young; Lee, Okjeong; Kim, Sangdan

doi:10.3390/atmos12020227

Cited by 7 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…Nonstationary impacts in terms of nonstationary return level for extreme precipitation may increase in the twenty-first century. Moreover, Aziz et al, [61] showed more consistent nonstationarity effects for temperature extremes at seasonal and annual scales from historical to future times. The investigation of historic-based analysis may only be helpful for short-run strategy and decision-making, while analysis based upon both historical and projected data may be more suitable for long-term strategy planning.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 94%

“…The four distributions of generalized extreme value, Gumbel, normal, and lognormal, have been used in this study to carry out the return level for a specific return period. Numerous researchers used these probability distributions for the analysis of return levels of hydro-meteorological variables [39][40][41][60][61][62][63][64]. The analysis of precipitation was carried out for the historical and projected period.…”

Section: Stationary and Nonstationary Frequency Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impact Evaluation Using Nonstationary Parameters for Historical and Projected Extreme Precipitation

Khan,

Ijaz,

Iqbal

et al. 2023

Water

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Recent improvements in time series studies of hydro-climatological variables have led to the belief that the effects of nonstationarity are substantial enough to call the idea of traditional stationary approaches into doubt. The mean and variability of annual and seasonal rainfall in Pakistan are changing due to anthropogenic climate change. With the use of stationary and nonstationary frequency analysis techniques, this study set out to assess the impacts of nonstationarity in Southern Punjab, Pakistan, over the historical period of 1970–2015 and the future periods of 2020–2060 and 2060–2100. Four frequency distributions, namely Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), Gumbel, normal, and lognormal, were used. The findings of the nonstationarity impact across Southern Punjab showed different kinds of impacts, such as an increase or reduction in the return level of extreme precipitation. In comparison to other distributions, GEV provided the finest fit. In Bahawalnagar, Bahawalpur, Multan, Rahim Yar Khan and DG. Khan, the annual nonstationarity impacts for the 100-year return level were increased up to 15.2%, 8.7%, 58.3%, 18.7%, and 20%, respectively. Moreover, extreme precipitation was found to be increasing during the historical and projected periods, which may increase floods, while less water availability appeared at a seasonal scale (summer) during 2061–2100. The increased nonstationarity effects emphasized adapting these nonstationarities induced by climate change into the design of water resource structures.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 94%

Section: Stationary and Nonstationary Frequency Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact Evaluation Using Nonstationary Parameters for Historical and Projected Extreme Precipitation

Khan,

Ijaz,

Iqbal

et al. 2023

Water

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“…Comparing the minimum and maximum ranges of each parameter after applying the non-informative priors reduces the variance. This method has been validated in previous studies conducted by (Jerez et al, 2021;Seo et al, 2021). The effect of make-up water parameters, such as sodium, chloride, and conductivity, influences the system conductivity.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 96%

Multivariate regression studies for investigating and setting the action levels for the system water quality parameters of a nuclear plant

Suganya

Swaminathan

Anoop

2022

Water & Environment J

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A broad spectrum of water quality parameters is regularly monitored and assessed in auxiliary water systems. The integrity and availability status of a system are ensured by observing the trend of water quality indices which further warrants investigating the regulatory requirements of both safety and non‐safety‐related systems of a nuclear power plant. To evaluate the water chemistry state in a raw water system, we conducted a statistical study investigating water quality indices over 3 years. Obligatory statistical tools were utilized to comprehend and correlate the effects of the source water on the system. Most water quality parameters were found to be within an acceptable range, and correlations were found between the parameters, namely, conductivity, sodium, and chloride. Multivariate optimization and regression studies using the Box–Behnken design were conducted to minimize the system conductivity levels. The experimental data were fitted into a quadratic equation with an r2 value of 0.84. Model validation was conducted, and the fit between the experimental and model results was within 10%. This assessment identifies preventive action levels to avoid impairment of system integrity at an early stage.

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“…Da states that specialists might assist the DM in discretizing in flood severity levels, in which probability density functions (PDFs) can be used to calculate . From this perspective, the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution is suitable to model extreme events, as observed in Esteves (2013) and Seo et al (2021);…”

Section: Risk Identification On Shelter Project's Locationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Natural Disasters Management Support Models: A Hybrid Approach Focused on Humanitarian Logistics

Albuquerque,

Silva,

Alencar

et al. 2023

Proceeding of the 33rd European Safety and Reliability Conference

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Natural disasters worldwide have highlighted the need for special logistical treatment, called humanitarian logistics. It is known, however, that there are significant challenges in implementing systematized logistics processes, especially those related to the infrastructure and location of humanitarian assistance centers and coordination of emergency processes, including the location of temporary shelters. This paper proposes a hybrid approach of a mathematical multicriteria model based on utility theory and FITradeoff for portfolio problems to assist the management of emergency coping strategies for disaster risks caused by urban flooding. Focusing on the principles of humanitarian logistics for prioritizing the spatial location of temporary shelters. By addressing objectives that require a global and comprehensive view, the multicriteria methods are effective in risk management due to their main characteristic of recognizing subjectivity as an intrinsic part of decision problems. Therefore, four criteria were raised to evaluate the order of prioritization for the deployment of temporary emergency shelters. Therefore, complex situations such as flooding, which require contingency planning over large areas and managing logistical activities, are difficult and complex tasks. As a result, therefore, a subset of locations to be considered as community or collective temporary shelters was established, as well as the computational vision and the logistic operations mode needed to operate these shelters and save lives, which constitutes a helpful decision support tool regarding the selection and location of temporary shelters capable of assisting in the construction of the Emergency Plan in response to floods, at the strategic or operational level of logistical decisions.

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Uncertainty of Rate of Change in Korean Future Rainfall Extremes Using Non-Stationary GEV Model

Cited by 7 publications

References 46 publications

Impact Evaluation Using Nonstationary Parameters for Historical and Projected Extreme Precipitation

Impact Evaluation Using Nonstationary Parameters for Historical and Projected Extreme Precipitation

Multivariate regression studies for investigating and setting the action levels for the system water quality parameters of a nuclear plant

Natural Disasters Management Support Models: A Hybrid Approach Focused on Humanitarian Logistics

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