Uncertainty management: From geological scenarios to production scheme optimization

Zabalza-Mezghani, I.; Manceau, E.; Feraille, Mathieu; Jourdan, Astrid

doi:10.1016/j.petrol.2004.02.002

Cited by 61 publications

(29 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…Sources of uncertainties in this field are almost infinite and are anywhere within the reservoir modeling workflow, and could be classified as follows, as illustrated in Figure 1: -static model (outcrops and regional studies, well log analysis and seismic acquisition); -up-scaling (coarsening for highly heterogeneous and/or de-structured media); -fluid flow modeling (relative permeability curves, well productivity, PVT or the solver); -production data integration (measured well-production data); -production scheme development and economic evaluation (optimization of the number of production wells, their location and architecture, injection schemes as well as some surface facilities) [1].…”

Section: Sources Of Uncertainties In Reservoir Engineeringmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As described above, reservoir evaluation and optimization require handling a very complex modeling on which many Sources of uncertainties in reservoir modeling workflow [1]. uncertainties remain.…”

Section: Classification Of Uncertaintiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…); -stochastic (infinity of equiprobable structural maps, fracture maps, geostatistical realizations, history matched models, etc.) [1].…”

Section: Classification Of Uncertaintiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…All these uncertainties finally lead to a complex reservoir model; therefore extension of the model (pressure and recovery factor of the field after a certain period of time) to a wide range of time produces unacceptable results. To reduce these uncertainties, petroleum industries require a framework consisting of evaluating sensitivities and estimating impact of uncertainties on the field performance [1,2,12].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Uncertainty Analysis of a Fractured Reservoir’s Performance: A Case Study

Khosravi

Rostami

Fatemi

2012

Oil Gas Sci. Technol. – Rev. IFP Energies nouvelles

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Résumé -Analyse d'incertitudes des performances d'un réservoir fracturé : étude de cas -Ces dernières années, l'industrie du pétrole a accordé une grande importance à la gestion et à l'analyse d'incertitudes des réservoirs. Le développement d'une méthode permettant de modéliser et de quantifier les incertitudes au cours des études de simulation de réservoir d'une façon efficace et pratique est clairement souhaitable. Des approches différentes telles que la méthodologie des surfaces de réponse (RSM ; Response Surface Methodology) et la simulation de Monte-Carlo ont été utilisées pour évaluer les incertitudes. Au sein de cet article, la méthode de surface de réponse est utilisée pour appréhender les paramètres les plus influents sur les changements en termes de chute de pression et de facteur de récupération, en ce qui concerne leurs niveaux pratiques d'incertitudes au cours du développement d'un modèle de réservoir fracturé. La présente approche est utilisée pour amplifier les paramètres significatifs et développer une équation substitutive compatible et plus réaliste en vue de la prévision de la récupération d'huile à partir d'un réservoir fracturé faiblement perméable typique. Le modèle substitutif permet à l'analyse de MonteCarlo de déterminer les sensibilités et la quantification de l'incidence de l'incertitude sur les prévisions de production. Les résultats indiquent que la récupération d'huile est plus sensible à la pression de l'aquifère, à la perméabilité de fracture et à la hauteur de bloc. De plus, toutefois, l'interaction entre d'autres paramètres tels que la taille de matrice, la perméabilité de fracture et le volume d'aquifère a montré un certain degré d'importance au cours de cette analyse. L'analyse de Monte-Carlo prévoit un domaine de grande ampleur de récupération d'huile pour l'exploitation de ce champ. Abstract -Uncertainty Analysis of a Fractured Reservoir's Performances: A Case Study -In recent years, the oil industry has given great importance to reservoir management and reservoir uncertainty analysis. The development of a method that can model and quantify uncertainties in reservoir simulation

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Section: Sources Of Uncertainties In Reservoir Engineeringmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Classification Of Uncertaintiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…); -stochastic (infinity of equiprobable structural maps, fracture maps, geostatistical realizations, history matched models, etc.) [1].…”

Section: Classification Of Uncertaintiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Uncertainty Analysis of a Fractured Reservoir’s Performance: A Case Study

Khosravi

Rostami

Fatemi

2012

Oil Gas Sci. Technol. – Rev. IFP Energies nouvelles

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“…These constraints can be expressed as integer linear inequalities, (52) and (53), respectively, (Raman and Grossmann, 1991). In addition, the valid inequalities (54), are also included to bound the cumulative contractor's share in the cumulative profit oil by the end of time period t, based on the sliding scale profit oil share and cost oil that has been recovered (see Gupta and Grossmann, 2012b for details). (67) and (68) compute the water and gas flow rates in time period t from a field to FPSO facility in scenario s as the difference of cumulative amounts produced by the end of current time period t and previous time period t-1, divided by the time duration of that period.…”

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confidence: 99%

Multistage stochastic programming approach for offshore oilfield infrastructure planning under production sharing agreements and endogenous uncertainties

Gupta

Grossmann

2014

Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering

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The paper presents a new optimization model and solution approach for the investment and operations planning of offshore oil and gas field infrastructure. As compared to previous models where fiscal rules and uncertainty in the field parameters are considered separately, the proposed model is the first one in the literature that includes both of these complexities in an efficient manner. In particular, a tighter formulation for the production sharing agreements is used based on our recent work, and correlation among the endogenous uncertain parameters (field size, oil deliverability, water-oil ratio and gas-oil ratio) is considered to reduce the total number of scenarios in the resulting multistage stochastic formulation. To solve large instances, a Lagangean decomposition approach allowing parallel solution of the scenario subproblems is implemented in the GAMS grid computing environment. Computational results on a variety of oilfield development planning examples are presented to illustrate the efficiency of the model and the proposed solution approach.

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Sensitivity Analysis

2018

Quantifying Uncertainty in Subsurface Systems

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Uncertainty management: From geological scenarios to production scheme optimization

Cited by 61 publications

References 9 publications

Uncertainty Analysis of a Fractured Reservoir’s Performance: A Case Study

Uncertainty Analysis of a Fractured Reservoir’s Performance: A Case Study

Multistage stochastic programming approach for offshore oilfield infrastructure planning under production sharing agreements and endogenous uncertainties

Sensitivity Analysis

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